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| Autor principal: | |
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| Formato: | Preprint |
| Publicado em: |
2026
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| Assuntos: | |
| Acesso em linha: | https://arxiv.org/abs/2602.02483 |
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Sumário:
- This paper studies how labor market conditions around high school graduation affect postsecondary skill investments. Using administrative data on more than six million German graduates from 1995-2018, and exploiting deviations from secular state-specific trends, I document procyclical college enrollment. Cyclical increases in unemployment reduce enrollment at traditional universities and shift graduates toward vocational colleges and apprenticeships. These effects translate into educational attainment. Using large-scale survey data, I identify changes in expected returns to different degrees as the main mechanism. During recessions, graduates expect lower returns to an academic degree, while expected returns to a vocational degree are stable.