Αποθηκεύτηκε σε:
| Κύριος συγγραφέας: | |
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| Μορφή: | Recurso digital |
| Γλώσσα: | Αγγλικά |
| Έκδοση: |
Zenodo
2023
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| Θέματα: | |
| Διαθέσιμο Online: | https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.16914283 |
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Πίνακας περιεχομένων:
- <p>One of the TransformAr project's objectives is to understand the degree of acceptance of adaptation solutions by the public. This is the main focus of Work Package 6, and task T.6.1 on the ‘Econometric analysis of acceptance and preferences of adaptive solutions’ contributes to it by eliciting the public's preferences for adaptation solutions and by estimating the willingness-to-pay (WTP) for adaptation measures and packages across Europe. To derive such estimates, we performed a Discrete Choice Experiment (DCE) on a sample of over 9000 households in six European countries. This deliverable describes the methods and the results of this empirical study. </p> <p>Surveys designed to elicit people’s preferences and attitudes are widely used in empirical environmental economics studies, as environmental goods typically do not have a market, and hence assigning them a meaningful economic value cannot rely directly on market prices. Discrete choice experiments are a widely used method in the environmental economics literature on non-market goods evaluation. In empirical studies assessing the public perception of climate change policies, the application of DCE methods to adaptation policies and measures is scarcer compared to those related to mitigation. Most DCE studies on adaptation have a local focus and evaluate one or few specific adaptation measures to be deployed at a specific location, focusing, in most instances, on agricultural and coastal adaptation. To our knowledge, no studies are taking a broader stance and evaluating the WTP of the residents in one or more countries towards adaptation in general, or in the various sectors for which adaptation measures may be needed. Our study, which covers six European countries and six adaptation sectors, is a first attempt to arrive to such general WTP estimates.</p> <p>Methods. We conducted a survey among 9072 (over 1500 per country) respondents in six European countries where TransformAr’s demonstrators’ adaptation solutions are implemented (namely, Greece, Spain, Italy, Finland, Norway and the United Kingdom). The survey was carried out by a survey company using Computer Assisted Web Interviewing (CAWI) procedures. As noted above, Discrete Choice Experiments (DCEs) are our method of choice to assess the degree of acceptance of adaptation policy measures by Europeans. In a DCE setting, individual decisions about the object of the choice, be it a good, a service, or a policy action, are determined by its characteristics, or attributes. One of these attributes conveys the monetary cost for the respondent, for instance, in the form of taxes or higher prices of certain products. DCEs are based on data collected by asking survey respondents to indicate their preferences among several goods or policy options described by attributes. A status quo alternative is included to ensure that respondents are not forced to choose if they prefer not to. In our case, using a DCE allows us to gauge how much people are willing to pay for the implementation of an adaptation measure, or a combination of measures within a policy package. Our questionnaire includes seven sections. After a few demographic questions needed to verify the sampling quotas, the focus progressively narrows from broad attitudes towards climate change to the more specific features of adaptation policies. The main section of the questionnaire is the discrete choice experiment, whereby we ask our respondents to choose between the status quo (in which no new tax is levied and no new adaptation policy is implemented) and a policy package described in terms the sectors covered (water resources, surface water, sea level rise, agriculture, forests and fisheries) the kind of adaptation measure implemented, (infrastructure, nature-based or regulation), and the annual addition to income tax to be paid each year for the next ten years. Follow-up questions check whether respondents considered co-benefits of adaptation in their choice, and the attributes deemed most and least relevant for their choice. The choice experiment is repeated seven times with each respondent, varying the levels of the same or all attributes each time. The final section deals again with the socio-demographic features of the respondent’s household. The questionnaire closes with a final question asking how likely the respondent thinks that the opinion expressed in the survey will be taken into account by policymakers.</p> <p>Main Results. Our survey was carried out between October 23rd, 2023, and December 15th, 2023. We analysed our dataset using STATATM. Key parameters were significant and with the sign we expected. In particular, the coefficient on the cost of the policy program was negative and statistically significant. This allowed us to estimate overall WTP as well as sector-specific WTPs; however, estimating WTPs for different types of measures proved not feasible in most instances, as only the presence of infrastructure triggers a significant reaction. Our most comprehensive WTP estimate, for policy packages covering all resources and sectors considered in the DCE, is quite high (EUR 1346 a year). In terms of sector-specific WTPs, we found a clear ranking of WTP across sectors: respondents care the most for adaptation for water supply, followed by surface waters, forests, agriculture, coastal areas, and fisheries. Restricting the sample to those who expect their answers to be taken into consideration by policymakers does not affect the ranking, but has a small, positive effect on WTPs. Results are also robust to excluding those respondents who voted in favour of the hypothetical program all seven times. We found a very small (0.08) but significant Income elasticity of the WTP computed at the sample’s average household. Having completed a university education results in a more sizeable effect on WTP, as university-educated respondents are willing to pay EUR 160 more for any adaptation program than persons with lower educational attainments. The WTP for implementing adaptation policy packages varies noticeably depending on the targeted sectors and on the country in which policies are supposed to be implemented. Italy and the UK are the countries placing the highest value on protecting their coastlines, while the Italian respondents are the ones with the lowest degree of concern about agriculture. Adaptation policy targeting water supply, the most highly valued resource in all countries, reaches its top WTP in Spain.</p> <p>Implications and recommendations. There are valuable takeaways for our project and for the EU adaptation policy in these results. From TransformAr’s perspective, our WTP estimates provide the empirical basis for a comprehensive assessment of the acceptance of adaptation actions in Europe. We found a specification of our econometric estimations that can be used to perform a Benefit Transfer exercise to all other European countries to estimate the WTPs for adaptation across Europe. We report about this exercise is in Deliverable D.6.2. In terms of acceptance of adaptation policy actions, we can conclude that our demonstrators’ adaptation solutions stand good chances to be warmly welcomed in the areas where they are being deployed, but those dealing with water resources are likely to meet the highest interest, and those dealing with fisheries are likely to trigger much less support within the public.</p>