محفوظ في:
| المؤلف الرئيسي: | |
|---|---|
| التنسيق: | Recurso digital |
| اللغة: | |
| منشور في: |
Zenodo
2025
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| الوصول للمادة أونلاين: | https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17924765 |
| الوسوم: |
إضافة وسم
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جدول المحتويات:
- <p>The epidemiology of Dengue fever in Dhaka, Bangladesh, is undergoing a critical shift. While historically confined to the monsoon season, recent outbreaks in 2023 and 2024 have demonstrated an alarming persistence into the winter months. This study investigates the hypothesis that rising late-year temperatures are extending the breeding window of the <em>Aedes aegypti</em> vector, thereby driving these prolonged epidemics. We constructed a deterministic SIR-Vector mathematical model, modified with a temperature-dependent recruitment function, to simulate the 2024 transmission dynamics. The simulation results successfully reproduced the atypical "late surge" observed in November, confirming that climate anomalies play a deterministic role in sustaining the virus beyond the traditional season. These findings suggest that current vector control strategies, which target the mid-year monsoon peak, are no longer sufficient. We conclude that public health interventions must be adapted to include late-season surveillance and larvicidal campaigns to mitigate this emerging year-round threat.</p>