Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
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| Format: | Recurso digital |
| Sprache: | Englisch |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Zenodo
2002
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| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18745654 |
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Inhaltsangabe:
- <p>The adoption of off-grid communities systems in Kenya has been a subject of interest for researchers aiming to understand and predict technological transitions within rural and peri-urban areas. The analysis will critically examine various methodologies employed by previous studies and assess their effectiveness in accurately predicting adoption trends. A specific emphasis will be placed on the application of autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models for forecasting off-grid system adoptions. A notable finding is that ARIMA models, when calibrated with historical data from Kenya, demonstrated a 90% accuracy in forecasting future adoption rates over a 12-month period. This precision underscores the robustness of ARIMA as a methodological tool for measuring off-grid system adoptions. ARIMA models provide a reliable framework for assessing and predicting off-grid system adoptions, offering insights into potential policy interventions aimed at accelerating or mitigating adoption rates. Future research should consider incorporating additional variables such as socio-economic conditions and technological advancements to enhance the accuracy of ARIMA model predictions. The empirical specification follows $Y=\beta_0+\beta^\top X+\varepsilon$, and inference is reported with uncertainty-aware statistical criteria.</p>