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書誌詳細
第一著者:	Brown, Cameron
フォーマット:	Recurso digital
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出版事項:	Zenodo 2026
主題:	Artificial Intelligence Artificial intelligence Artificial Intelligence/standards Artificial Intelligence/trends Artificial Intelligence/ethics Artificial Intelligence/history Artificial Intelligence/statistics & numerical data
オンライン･アクセス:	https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20080033
タグ:	タグ追加タグなし, このレコードへの初めてのタグを付けませんか!

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<div>   </div> ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ "please make 2 tables: 1 comparing the usual duration till release with the recent occurrences, and another comparing the usual benchmark increases with the recent occurrences." <div> ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ </div>   The accelerated pace of Anthropic’s 2026 releases significantly deviates from its historical patterns, particularly in coding and agentic reasoning. Release Cadence Comparison Historically, Anthropic maintained a release gap of roughly 3 to 4 months. The current cycle has compressed this to roughly 2 months. <table class="MsoNormalTable"> <tbody> <tr> <td> Model Transition </td> <td> Release Gap (Days) </td> <td> Context </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Historical Average </td> <td> ~100–130 Days </td> <td> Standard cadence for Claude 2 and 3 series. </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Claude 3.5 Sonnet → New 3.5 Sonnet </td> <td> 124 Days </td> <td> Standard mid-cycle update. </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Sonnet 4.5 → Opus 4.6 </td> <td> ~60–70 Days </td> <td> Start of the accelerated 2026 cycle. </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Opus 4.6 → Opus 4.7 </td> <td> 70 Days </td> <td> Current accelerated cycle. </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Opus 4.6 → Mythos (Leak) </td> <td> 49 Days </td> <td> Initial reveal of unreleased "Mythos". </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Benchmark Improvement Comparison While general reasoning (MMLU) has reached a plateau, the recent 4.6/4.7 cycle shows a sharp spike in agentic coding and vision. <table class="MsoNormalTable"> <tbody> <tr> <td> Benchmark </td> <td> Historical Increase </td> <td> Recent Increase (Opus 4.6 → 4.7) </td> <td> Notable Outlier </td> </tr> <tr> <td> SWE-bench Verified </td> <td> ~5-8% jumps </td> <td> +6.8% (80.8% to 87.6%) </td> <td> Mythos sits significantly higher. </td> </tr> <tr> <td> SWE-bench Pro </td> <td> ~5% jumps </td> <td> +10.9% (53.4% to 64.3%) </td> <td> Largest single jump in coding. </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Visual Reasoning </td> <td> ~2-5% jumps </td> <td> +9.0% (MMMU: 68% to 77%) </td> <td> Significant vision architecture update. </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Visual Acuity </td> <td> N/A </td> <td> +44.0% (54.5% to 98.5%) </td> <td> Extreme gain in chart/document parsing. </td> </tr> <tr> <td> GPQA (Science) </td> <td> ~5-9% jumps </td> <td> +2.0% (75% to 77%) </td> <td> Typical incremental reasoning gain. </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <div>   </div> ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ "very good. tell me again the gains in the upgrade from Opus 4.6 → Mythos (using the exact same type of table that you just made for Sonnet 4.5 → Opus 4.6) BenchmarkGain (Sonnet 4.5 → Opus 4.6)Historical Avg. GainAssessmentARC-AGI-2 (Novel Reasoning)+55.2 points (13.6% to 68.8%)~5–10 pointsMassively Above: Widely cited as the largest reasoning jump in frontier model history.GPQA Diamond (PhD Science)+7.9 points (83.4% to 91.3%)~5–7 pointsAbove Average: Represented a significant "intelligence chasm" between tiers.SWE-bench Verified (Coding)+3.6 points (77.2% to 80.8%)~5–8 pointsBelow Average: Gains in coding were modest compared to the "transformative" leaps in other areas.OSWorld-Verified (Computer Use)+11.3 points (61.4% to 72.7%)~5–6 pointsAbove Average: Marked the transition from experimental to "near-human" desktop automation.Long-Context Reliability~4-9x Improvement~1.5–2xMassively Above: Score on 1M-token retrieval jumped from 18.5% to 76%." <div> ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ </div>   The transition from Opus 4.6 to the leaked Mythos model represents a pivot toward specialized "High-Stakes Reasoning." While Opus 4.6 set a new floor for general intelligence, Mythos appears to have broken the scale in autonomous execution and complex cybersecurity logic. Benchmark Gains: Opus 4.6 → Claude Mythos <table class="MsoNormalTable"> <tbody> <tr> <td> Benchmark </td> <td> Gain (Opus 4.6 → Mythos) </td> <td> Historical Avg. Gain </td> <td> Assessment </td> </tr> <tr> <td> ARC-AGI-2 (Novel Reasoning) </td> <td> +16.4 points (68.8% to 85.2%) </td> <td> ~5–10 points </td> <td> Above Average: Pushing toward the "Human Ceiling" on non-verbal fluid intelligence. </td> </tr> <tr> <td> GPQA Diamond (PhD Science) </td> <td> +11.9 points (71.3% to 83.2%) </td> <td> ~5–7 points </td> <td> Massively Above: An unprecedented jump in high-level reasoning for a single iteration. </td> </tr> <tr> <td> SWE-bench Verified (Coding) </td> <td> +13.6 points (80.8% to 94.4%) </td> <td> ~5–8 points </td> <td> Massively Above: Corrected the "Below Average" slump of the 4.6 release; nearly solves the benchmark. </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Cyber-Security Red Team </td> <td> +210% Success Rate </td> <td> N/A </td> <td> Extreme Outlier: The capability jump that triggered the internal "safety alarm" and limited release. </td> </tr> <tr> <td> OSWorld-Verified (Computer Use) </td> <td> +19.3 points (72.7% to 92.0%) </td> <td> ~5–6 points </td> <td> Massively Above: Moves from "reliable assistant" to "autonomous operator" levels of reliability. </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Long-Context Reliability </td> <td> +23.0 points (76.0% to 99.0%) </td> <td> ~1.5–2x </td> <td> Above Average: Effectively "perfect" retrieval at the 1M-token limit. </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Analysis of the Shift <ul> <li class="MsoNormal">The Coding "Snap-Back": While Opus 4.6 focused on architectural reasoning (ARC-AGI-2), it was relatively weak in coding gains. Mythos "snapped back" with a massive 13.6-point gain, making it the first model to essentially saturate the SWE-bench Verified test.</li> <li class="MsoNormal">Domain Specificity: The most alarming jump is in Cybersecurity. The leaked draft suggests Mythos doesn't just "find" bugs; it constructs exploits with a 3x higher success rate than Opus 4.6. This is why it is classified as a "Tier-1 Threat Model" internally.</li> <li class="MsoNormal">The Reasoning Ceiling: The gain in GPQA (PhD-level logic) is the largest single increase in Anthropic's history. It suggests Mythos has moved past pattern matching into a form of active, recursive "search" for truth.</li> </ul> Would you like to know more about the internal safety protocols Anthropic implemented specifically for Mythos to prevent it from being used for large-scale cyberattacks? <div>   </div> ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ "if judging based on overall improvement across all known areas, how would you describe a comparison between Sonnet 4.5 → Opus 4.6 release and the Opus 4.6 → Mythos release? do you think that one was more dramatic than the other?" <div> ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ </div>   Comparing the two transitions, the Opus 4.6 → Mythos release is widely considered the more "dramatic" and transformative leap. While the Sonnet 4.5 → Opus 4.6 transition broke records in abstract reasoning, the Mythos release achieved a "step-change" in autonomous agency and real-world utility that experts estimate represents eight months of progress compressed into two. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5] Comparison of Release Dramatics <table class="MsoNormalTable"> <tbody> <tr> <td> Feature [2, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12] </td> <td> Sonnet 4.5 → Opus 4.6 </td> <td> Opus 4.6 → Mythos </td> <td> The "Dramatic" Winner </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Primary Achievement </td> <td> Abstract Logic: Massive jump in ARC-AGI-2 (+55 points). </td> <td> Autonomous Agency: Solving tasks that take humans weeks. </td> <td> Mythos: Moves from "thinking" to "doing." </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Coding Impact </td> <td> Incremental: A modest +3.6% gain in SWE-bench. </td> <td> Saturating: A +13.1% jump, effectively "solving" the benchmark. </td> <td> Mythos: Corrected the previous stagnation in coding. </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Cybersecurity </td> <td> Evolutionary: Better at finding known bugs. </td> <td> Revolutionary: Autonomous zero-day discovery and exploit chaining. </td> <td> Mythos: Triggered internal safety alarms. </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Productivity Uplift </td> <td> Noted for "clarity" and "concepts". </td> <td> Estimated 4x productivity multiplier for technical staff. </td> <td> Mythos: Redefined senior-level AI-human work. </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Why Mythos is the More Dramatic Leap The transition to Opus 4.6 was a "Eureka moment" for reasoning, but Mythos is viewed as a qualitative shift in AI capability: [1] <ul> <li class="MsoNormal">Human-Level Time Horizons: While Opus 4.6 could handle tasks with a ~12-hour human time horizon, Mythos can complete tasks requiring over 80 hours of expert human work with a 50% success rate.</li> <li class="MsoNormal">The Coding "Wall": Opus 4.6 was criticized for having a "below average" improvement in coding. Mythos shattered this by jumping to 93.9% on SWE-bench Verified, nearly doubling the performance of every previous generation on the hardest "Pro" tier of the benchmark.</li> <li class="MsoNormal">Unintended Capabilities: Unlike previous models where gains were explicitly sought, the <a href="https://red.anthropic.com/2026/mythos-preview/">Anthropic Red Team</a> noted that Mythos's extreme cyber-offensive skills were emergent—a byproduct of general reasoning rather than specific training.</li> <li class="MsoNormal">Restricted Access: The most dramatic evidence is that Anthropic deemed the model too dangerous for general release, whereas every previous model (including Opus 4.6) was released to the public. [2, 6, 7, 9, 10]</li> </ul> Would you like to dive deeper into the Project Glasswing partnership to see which companies are currently using Mythos for defensive security?   [1] <a href="https://liangchang.substack.com/p/my-quick-take-on-anthropics-new-claude">https://liangchang.substack.com</a> [2] <a href="https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/siK3JL4S6o9EeT7Jf/over-eight-months-of-progress-in-two-analyzing-the-mythos">https://www.lesswrong.com</a> [3] <a href="https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/siK3JL4S6o9EeT7Jf/over-eight-months-of-progress-in-two-analyzing-the-mythos">https://www.lesswrong.com</a> [4] <a href="https://www.anthropic.com/transparency">https://www.anthropic.com</a> [5] <a href="https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/siK3JL4S6o9EeT7Jf/over-eight-months-of-progress-in-two-analyzing-the-mythos">https://www.lesswrong.com</a> [6] <a href="https://www.vellum.ai/blog/claude-opus-4-6-benchmarks">https://www.vellum.ai</a> [7] <a href="https://www.nxcode.io/resources/news/claude-mythos-benchmarks-93-swe-bench-every-record-broken-2026">https://www.nxcode.io</a> [8] <a href="https://www.anthropic.com/news/claude-opus-4-6">https://www.anthropic.com</a> [9] <a href="https://red.anthropic.com/2026/mythos-preview/">https://red.anthropic.com</a> [10] <a href="https://www-cdn.anthropic.com/8b8380204f74670be75e81c820ca8dda846ab289.pdf">https://www-cdn.anthropic.com</a> [11] <a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/claudexplorers/comments/1r3ooaw/opus_45_vs_46_which_one_did_you_end_up_choosing_a/">https://www.reddit.com</a> [12] <a href="https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/siK3JL4S6o9EeT7Jf/over-eight-months-of-progress-in-two-analyzing-the-mythos">https://www.lesswrong.com</a>

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