Reducing Overconfidence in Spreadsheet Development
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arXiv
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| Format: | Preprint |
| Published: |
2008
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| _version_ | 1866929649436590080 |
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| author | Panko, Raymond R. |
| author_facet | Panko, Raymond R. |
| contents | Despite strong evidence of widespread errors, spreadsheet developers rarely subject their spreadsheets to post-development testing to reduce errors. This may be because spreadsheet developers are overconfident in the accuracy of their spreadsheets. This conjecture is plausible because overconfidence is present in a wide variety of human cognitive domains, even among experts. This paper describes two experiments in overconfidence in spreadsheet development. The first is a pilot study to determine the existence of overconfidence. The second tests a manipulation to reduce overconfidence and errors. The manipulation is modestly successful, indicating that overconfidence reduction is a promising avenue to pursue. |
| format | Preprint |
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arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_0804_0941 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2008 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Reducing Overconfidence in Spreadsheet Development Panko, Raymond R. Human-Computer Interaction Software Engineering J.1; H.4.1; K.6.4; D.2.5; D.2.9; K.8.1 Despite strong evidence of widespread errors, spreadsheet developers rarely subject their spreadsheets to post-development testing to reduce errors. This may be because spreadsheet developers are overconfident in the accuracy of their spreadsheets. This conjecture is plausible because overconfidence is present in a wide variety of human cognitive domains, even among experts. This paper describes two experiments in overconfidence in spreadsheet development. The first is a pilot study to determine the existence of overconfidence. The second tests a manipulation to reduce overconfidence and errors. The manipulation is modestly successful, indicating that overconfidence reduction is a promising avenue to pursue. |
| title | Reducing Overconfidence in Spreadsheet Development |
| topic | Human-Computer Interaction Software Engineering J.1; H.4.1; K.6.4; D.2.5; D.2.9; K.8.1 |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/0804.0941 |