Spread of pathogens in the patient transfer network of US hospitals
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arXiv
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| Autores principales: | , , , , |
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| Formato: | Preprint |
| Publicado: |
2015
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| _version_ | 1866917028306092032 |
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| author | Gracia, Juan Fernández Onnela, Jukka-Pekka Barnett, Michael L. Eguíluz, Víctor M. Christakis, Nicholas A. |
| author_facet | Gracia, Juan Fernández Onnela, Jukka-Pekka Barnett, Michael L. Eguíluz, Víctor M. Christakis, Nicholas A. |
| contents | Emergent antibiotic-resistant bacterial infections are an increasingly significant source of morbidity and mortality. Antibiotic-resistant organisms have a natural reservoir in hospitals, and recent estimates suggest that almost 2 million people develop hospital-acquired infections each year in the US alone. We investigate a network induced by the transfer of Medicare patients across US hospitals over a 2-year period to learn about the possible role of hospital-to-hospital transfers of patients in the spread of infections. We analyze temporal, geographical, and topological properties of the transfer network and demonstrate, using C. Diff. as a case study, that this network may serve as a substrate for the spread of infections. Finally, we study different strategies for the early detection of incipient epidemics, finding that using approximately 2% of hospitals as sensors, chosen based on their network in-degree, results in optimal performance for this early warning system, enabling the early detection of 80% of the C. Diff. cases. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_1504_08343 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2015 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Spread of pathogens in the patient transfer network of US hospitals Gracia, Juan Fernández Onnela, Jukka-Pekka Barnett, Michael L. Eguíluz, Víctor M. Christakis, Nicholas A. Physics and Society Quantitative Methods Emergent antibiotic-resistant bacterial infections are an increasingly significant source of morbidity and mortality. Antibiotic-resistant organisms have a natural reservoir in hospitals, and recent estimates suggest that almost 2 million people develop hospital-acquired infections each year in the US alone. We investigate a network induced by the transfer of Medicare patients across US hospitals over a 2-year period to learn about the possible role of hospital-to-hospital transfers of patients in the spread of infections. We analyze temporal, geographical, and topological properties of the transfer network and demonstrate, using C. Diff. as a case study, that this network may serve as a substrate for the spread of infections. Finally, we study different strategies for the early detection of incipient epidemics, finding that using approximately 2% of hospitals as sensors, chosen based on their network in-degree, results in optimal performance for this early warning system, enabling the early detection of 80% of the C. Diff. cases. |
| title | Spread of pathogens in the patient transfer network of US hospitals |
| topic | Physics and Society Quantitative Methods |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/1504.08343 |