Age-structured estimation of COVID-19 ICU demand from low quality data
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arXiv
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| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Preprint |
| Published: |
2020
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| Subjects: | |
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| _version_ | 1866914675727269888 |
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| author | Veiga, Rodrigo Murta, Rodrigo Vicente, Renato |
| author_facet | Veiga, Rodrigo Murta, Rodrigo Vicente, Renato |
| contents | We sample aggravated cases following age-structured probabilities from confirmed cases and use ICU occupation data to find a subnotification factor. A logistic fit is then employed to project the progression of the COVID-19 epidemic with plateau scenarios taken from locations that have reached this stage. Finally, the logistic curve found is corrected by the subnotification factor and sampled to project the future demand for ICU beds. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2006_06530 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2020 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Age-structured estimation of COVID-19 ICU demand from low quality data Veiga, Rodrigo Murta, Rodrigo Vicente, Renato Physics and Society Populations and Evolution Machine Learning We sample aggravated cases following age-structured probabilities from confirmed cases and use ICU occupation data to find a subnotification factor. A logistic fit is then employed to project the progression of the COVID-19 epidemic with plateau scenarios taken from locations that have reached this stage. Finally, the logistic curve found is corrected by the subnotification factor and sampled to project the future demand for ICU beds. |
| title | Age-structured estimation of COVID-19 ICU demand from low quality data |
| topic | Physics and Society Populations and Evolution Machine Learning |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2006.06530 |