Embracing Uncertainty in "Small Data" Problems: Estimating Earthquakes from Historical Anecdotes
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arXiv
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| Autori principali: | , , , , , , |
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| Natura: | Preprint |
| Pubblicazione: |
2021
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| author | Glatt-Holtz, Nathan E. Harris, Ronald A. Holbrook, Andrew J. Krometis, Justin A. Kurniawan, Yonatan Ringer, Hayden Whitehead, Jared P. |
| author_facet | Glatt-Holtz, Nathan E. Harris, Ronald A. Holbrook, Andrew J. Krometis, Justin A. Kurniawan, Yonatan Ringer, Hayden Whitehead, Jared P. |
| contents | Seismic risk estimates will be vastly improved with an increased understanding of historical (and pre-historical) seismic events. However the only existing data for these events is anecdotal and sparse. To address this we developed a framework based on Bayesian inference to estimate the location and magnitude of pre-instrumental earthquakes. We present a careful analysis of results obtained from this procedure which justifies the sampling algorithm, its convergence to the resultant posterior distribution, and yields estimates on uncertainties in the relevant quantities. Using a priori estimates on the posterior and numerical approximations of the Hessian, we demonstrate that the 1852 Banda Sea earthquake and tsunami is indeed well-understood given certain explicit hypotheses. Using the same techniques we also find that the 1820 south Sulawesi event may best be explained by a dual fault rupture, best attributed to the Kalatoa fault potentially conjoining the Flores thrust and Walanae/Selayar fault. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2106_07797 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2021 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Embracing Uncertainty in "Small Data" Problems: Estimating Earthquakes from Historical Anecdotes Glatt-Holtz, Nathan E. Harris, Ronald A. Holbrook, Andrew J. Krometis, Justin A. Kurniawan, Yonatan Ringer, Hayden Whitehead, Jared P. Applications Geophysics 62P35, 86A22 Seismic risk estimates will be vastly improved with an increased understanding of historical (and pre-historical) seismic events. However the only existing data for these events is anecdotal and sparse. To address this we developed a framework based on Bayesian inference to estimate the location and magnitude of pre-instrumental earthquakes. We present a careful analysis of results obtained from this procedure which justifies the sampling algorithm, its convergence to the resultant posterior distribution, and yields estimates on uncertainties in the relevant quantities. Using a priori estimates on the posterior and numerical approximations of the Hessian, we demonstrate that the 1852 Banda Sea earthquake and tsunami is indeed well-understood given certain explicit hypotheses. Using the same techniques we also find that the 1820 south Sulawesi event may best be explained by a dual fault rupture, best attributed to the Kalatoa fault potentially conjoining the Flores thrust and Walanae/Selayar fault. |
| title | Embracing Uncertainty in "Small Data" Problems: Estimating Earthquakes from Historical Anecdotes |
| topic | Applications Geophysics 62P35, 86A22 |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2106.07797 |