Machine-Learned Prediction Equilibrium for Dynamic Traffic Assignment

Fuente: arXiv
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Hauptverfasser: Graf, Lukas, Harks, Tobias, Kollias, Kostas, Markl, Michael
Format: Preprint
Veröffentlicht: 2021
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author Graf, Lukas
Harks, Tobias
Kollias, Kostas
Markl, Michael
author_facet Graf, Lukas
Harks, Tobias
Kollias, Kostas
Markl, Michael
contents We study a dynamic traffic assignment model, where agents base their instantaneous routing decisions on real-time delay predictions. We formulate a mathematically concise model and define dynamic prediction equilibrium (DPE) in which no agent can at any point during their journey improve their predicted travel time by switching to a different route. We demonstrate the versatility of our framework by showing that it subsumes the well-known full information and instantaneous information models, in addition to admitting further realistic predictors as special cases. We then proceed to derive properties of the predictors that ensure a dynamic prediction equilibrium exists. Additionally, we define $\varepsilon$-approximate DPE wherein no agent can improve their predicted travel time by more than $\varepsilon$ and provide further conditions of the predictors under which such an approximate equilibrium can be computed. Finally, we complement our theoretical analysis by an experimental study, in which we systematically compare the induced average travel times of different predictors, including two machine-learning based models trained on data gained from previously computed approximate equilibrium flows, both on synthetic and real world road networks.
format Preprint
id arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2109_06713
institution arXiv
publishDate 2021
record_format arxiv
spellingShingle Machine-Learned Prediction Equilibrium for Dynamic Traffic Assignment
Graf, Lukas
Harks, Tobias
Kollias, Kostas
Markl, Michael
Computer Science and Game Theory
Machine Learning
Optimization and Control
We study a dynamic traffic assignment model, where agents base their instantaneous routing decisions on real-time delay predictions. We formulate a mathematically concise model and define dynamic prediction equilibrium (DPE) in which no agent can at any point during their journey improve their predicted travel time by switching to a different route. We demonstrate the versatility of our framework by showing that it subsumes the well-known full information and instantaneous information models, in addition to admitting further realistic predictors as special cases. We then proceed to derive properties of the predictors that ensure a dynamic prediction equilibrium exists. Additionally, we define $\varepsilon$-approximate DPE wherein no agent can improve their predicted travel time by more than $\varepsilon$ and provide further conditions of the predictors under which such an approximate equilibrium can be computed. Finally, we complement our theoretical analysis by an experimental study, in which we systematically compare the induced average travel times of different predictors, including two machine-learning based models trained on data gained from previously computed approximate equilibrium flows, both on synthetic and real world road networks.
title Machine-Learned Prediction Equilibrium for Dynamic Traffic Assignment
topic Computer Science and Game Theory
Machine Learning
Optimization and Control
url https://arxiv.org/abs/2109.06713