Approximate Factor Models for Functional Time Series

Fuente: arXiv
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Main Authors: Otto, Sven, Salish, Nazarii
Format: Preprint
Published: 2022
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author Otto, Sven
Salish, Nazarii
author_facet Otto, Sven
Salish, Nazarii
contents We propose a novel approximate factor model tailored for analyzing time-dependent curve data. Our model decomposes such data into two distinct components: a low-dimensional predictable factor component and an unpredictable error term. These components are identified through the autocovariance structure of the underlying functional time series. The model parameters are consistently estimated using the eigencomponents of a cumulative autocovariance operator and an information criterion is proposed to determine the appropriate number of factors. Applications to mortality and yield curve modeling illustrate key advantages of our approach over the widely used functional principal component analysis, as it offers parsimonious structural representations of the underlying dynamics along with gains in out-of-sample forecast performance.
format Preprint
id arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2201_02532
institution arXiv
publishDate 2022
record_format arxiv
spellingShingle Approximate Factor Models for Functional Time Series
Otto, Sven
Salish, Nazarii
Econometrics
Methodology
We propose a novel approximate factor model tailored for analyzing time-dependent curve data. Our model decomposes such data into two distinct components: a low-dimensional predictable factor component and an unpredictable error term. These components are identified through the autocovariance structure of the underlying functional time series. The model parameters are consistently estimated using the eigencomponents of a cumulative autocovariance operator and an information criterion is proposed to determine the appropriate number of factors. Applications to mortality and yield curve modeling illustrate key advantages of our approach over the widely used functional principal component analysis, as it offers parsimonious structural representations of the underlying dynamics along with gains in out-of-sample forecast performance.
title Approximate Factor Models for Functional Time Series
topic Econometrics
Methodology
url https://arxiv.org/abs/2201.02532