Treatment Effects in Bunching Designs: The Impact of Mandatory Overtime Pay on Hours
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arXiv
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| Format: | Preprint |
| Publié: |
2022
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| _version_ | 1866916294299746304 |
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| author | Goff, Leonard |
| author_facet | Goff, Leonard |
| contents | This paper studies the identifying power of bunching at kinks when the researcher does not assume a parametric choice model. I find that in a general choice model, identifying the average causal response to the policy switch at a kink amounts to confronting two extrapolation problems, each about the distribution of a counterfactual choice that is observed only in a censored manner. I apply this insight to partially identify the effect of overtime pay regulation on the hours of U.S. workers using administrative payroll data, assuming that each distribution satisfies a weak non-parametric shape constraint in the region where it is not observed. The resulting bounds are informative and indicate a relatively small elasticity of demand for weekly hours, addressing a long-standing question about the causal effects of the overtime mandate. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2205_10310 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2022 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Treatment Effects in Bunching Designs: The Impact of Mandatory Overtime Pay on Hours Goff, Leonard Econometrics This paper studies the identifying power of bunching at kinks when the researcher does not assume a parametric choice model. I find that in a general choice model, identifying the average causal response to the policy switch at a kink amounts to confronting two extrapolation problems, each about the distribution of a counterfactual choice that is observed only in a censored manner. I apply this insight to partially identify the effect of overtime pay regulation on the hours of U.S. workers using administrative payroll data, assuming that each distribution satisfies a weak non-parametric shape constraint in the region where it is not observed. The resulting bounds are informative and indicate a relatively small elasticity of demand for weekly hours, addressing a long-standing question about the causal effects of the overtime mandate. |
| title | Treatment Effects in Bunching Designs: The Impact of Mandatory Overtime Pay on Hours |
| topic | Econometrics |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2205.10310 |