On head-to-head results as tie-breaker and consequent opportunities for collusion
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arXiv
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| Format: | Preprint |
| Publié: |
2022
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| _version_ | 1866912380138553344 |
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| author | Csató, László |
| author_facet | Csató, László |
| contents | The outcome of some football matches has benefited both teams at the expense of a third team because head-to-head results were used for breaking ties. Inspired by these examples, our mathematical analysis identifies all possible collusion opportunities caused by this particular ranking rule in a single round-robin tournament with four teams. According to a simulation model based on the 2024 UEFA European Football Championship, merely the tie-breaking rule increases the probability of reaching a situation vulnerable to collusion by between 11.5 and 14.8 percentage points. This risk can scarcely be mitigated by a static match schedule. Therefore, tournament organisers are strongly encouraged to choose goal difference as the primary tie-breaking rule, similar to the official policy of FIFA. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2206_03961 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2022 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | On head-to-head results as tie-breaker and consequent opportunities for collusion Csató, László Physics and Society Applications 62F07, 90-10, 90B90 The outcome of some football matches has benefited both teams at the expense of a third team because head-to-head results were used for breaking ties. Inspired by these examples, our mathematical analysis identifies all possible collusion opportunities caused by this particular ranking rule in a single round-robin tournament with four teams. According to a simulation model based on the 2024 UEFA European Football Championship, merely the tie-breaking rule increases the probability of reaching a situation vulnerable to collusion by between 11.5 and 14.8 percentage points. This risk can scarcely be mitigated by a static match schedule. Therefore, tournament organisers are strongly encouraged to choose goal difference as the primary tie-breaking rule, similar to the official policy of FIFA. |
| title | On head-to-head results as tie-breaker and consequent opportunities for collusion |
| topic | Physics and Society Applications 62F07, 90-10, 90B90 |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2206.03961 |