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Monte Carlo method for constructing confidence intervals with unconstrained and constrained nuisance parameters in the NOvA experiment

Fuente: arXiv

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Dettagli Bibliografici
Autori principali:	Acero, M. A., Acharya, B., Adamson, P., Aliaga, L., Anfimov, N., Antoshkin, A., Arrieta-Diaz, E., Asquith, L., Aurisano, A., Back, A., Backhouse, C., Baird, M., Balashov, N., Baldi, P., Bambah, B. A., Bashar, S., Bat, A., Bays, K., Bernstein, R., Bhatnagar, V., Bhattarai, D., Bhuyan, B., Bian, J., Booth, A. C., Bowles, R., Brahma, B., Bromberg, C., Buchanan, N., Butkevich, A., Calvez, S., Carroll, T. J., Catano-Mur, E., Chatla, A., Chirco, R., Choudhary, B. C., Choudhary, S., Christensen, A., Coan, T. E., Colo, M., Cremonesi, L., Davies, G. S., Derwent, P. F., Ding, P., Djurcic, Z., Dolce, M., Doyle, D., Tonguino, D. Dueñas, Dukes, E. C., Dye, A., Ehrlich, R., Elkins, M., Ewart, E., Feldman, G. J., Filip, P., Franc, J., Frank, M. J., Gallagher, H. R., Gandrajula, R., Gao, F., Giri, A., Gomes, R. A., Goodman, M. C., Grichine, V., Groh, M., Group, R., Guo, B., Habig, A., Hakl, F., Hall, A., Hartnell, J., Hatcher, R., Hausner, H., He, M., Heller, K., Hewes, V, Himmel, A., Jargowsky, B., Jarosz, J., Jediny, F., Johnson, C., Judah, M., Kakorin, I., Kaplan, D. M., Kalitkina, A., Kleykamp, J., Klimov, O., Koerner, L. W., Kolupaeva, L., Kotelnikov, S., Kralik, R., Kullenberg, Ch., Kubu, M., Kumar, A., Kuruppu, C. D., Kus, V., Lackey, T., Lang, K., Lasorak, P., Lesmeister, J., Lin, S., Lister, A., Liu, J., Lokajicek, M., Lopez, J. M. C., Mahji, R., Magill, S., Plata, M. Manrique, Mann, W. A., Manoharan, M. T., Marshak, M. L., Martinez-Casales, M., Matveev, V., Mayes, B., Mehta, B., Messier, M. D., Meyer, H., Miao, T., Mikola, V., Miller, W. H., Mishra, S., Mishra, S. R., Mislivec, A., Mohanta, R., Moren, A., Morozova, A., Mu, W., Mualem, L., Muether, M., Mulder, K., Naples, D., Nath, A., Nayak, N., Nelleri, S., Nelson, J. K., Nichol, R., Niner, E., Norman, A., Norrick, A., Nosek, T., Oh, H., Olshevskiy, A., Olson, T., Ott, J., Pal, A., Paley, J., Panda, L., Patterson, R. B., Pawloski, G., Pershey, D., Petrova, O., Petti, R., Phan, D. D., Plunkett, R. K., Pobedimov, A., Porter, J. C. C., Rafique, A., Prais, L. R., Raj, V., Rajaoalisoa, M., Ramson, B., Rebel, B., Rojas, P., Roy, P., Ryabov, V., Samoylov, O., Sanchez, M. C., Falero, S. Sánchez, Shanahan, P., Sharma, P., Shukla, S., Sheshukov, A., Singh, I., Singh, P., Singh, V., Smith, E., Smolik, J., Snopok, P., Solomey, N., Sousa, A., Soustruznik, K., Strait, M., Suter, L., Sutton, A., Swain, S., Sweeney, C., Sztuc, A., Oregui, B. Tapia, Tas, P., Temizel, B. N., Thakore, T., Thayyullathil, R. B., Thomas, J., Tiras, E., Tripathi, J., Trokan-Tenorio, J., Torun, Y., Urheim, J., Vahle, P., Vallari, Z., Vasel, J., Vrba, T., Wallbank, M., Warburton, T. K., Wetstein, M., Whittington, D., Wickremasinghe, D. A., Wieber, T., Wolcott, J., Wrobel, M., Wu, W., Xiao, Y., Yaeggy, B., Dombara, A. Yallappa, Yankelevich, A., Yonehara, K., Yu, S., Yu, Y., Zadorozhnyy, S., Zalesak, J., Zhang, Y., Zwaska, R.
Natura:	Preprint
Pubblicazione:	2022
Soggetti:	High Energy Physics - Experiment Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability
Accesso online:	Acceder al recurso
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author	Acero, M. A. Acharya, B. Adamson, P. Aliaga, L. Anfimov, N. Antoshkin, A. Arrieta-Diaz, E. Asquith, L. Aurisano, A. Back, A. Backhouse, C. Baird, M. Balashov, N. Baldi, P. Bambah, B. A. Bashar, S. Bat, A. Bays, K. Bernstein, R. Bhatnagar, V. Bhattarai, D. Bhuyan, B. Bian, J. Booth, A. C. Bowles, R. Brahma, B. Bromberg, C. Buchanan, N. Butkevich, A. Calvez, S. Carroll, T. J. Catano-Mur, E. Chatla, A. Chirco, R. Choudhary, B. C. Choudhary, S. Christensen, A. Coan, T. E. Colo, M. Cremonesi, L. Davies, G. S. Derwent, P. F. Ding, P. Djurcic, Z. Dolce, M. Doyle, D. Tonguino, D. Dueñas Dukes, E. C. Dye, A. Ehrlich, R. Elkins, M. Ewart, E. Feldman, G. J. Filip, P. Franc, J. Frank, M. J. Gallagher, H. R. Gandrajula, R. Gao, F. Giri, A. Gomes, R. A. Goodman, M. C. Grichine, V. Groh, M. Group, R. Guo, B. Habig, A. Hakl, F. Hall, A. Hartnell, J. Hatcher, R. Hausner, H. He, M. Heller, K. Hewes, V Himmel, A. Jargowsky, B. Jarosz, J. Jediny, F. Johnson, C. Judah, M. Kakorin, I. Kaplan, D. M. Kalitkina, A. Kleykamp, J. Klimov, O. Koerner, L. W. Kolupaeva, L. Kotelnikov, S. Kralik, R. Kullenberg, Ch. Kubu, M. Kumar, A. Kuruppu, C. D. Kus, V. Lackey, T. Lang, K. Lasorak, P. Lesmeister, J. Lin, S. Lister, A. Liu, J. Lokajicek, M. Lopez, J. M. C. Mahji, R. Magill, S. Plata, M. Manrique Mann, W. A. Manoharan, M. T. Marshak, M. L. Martinez-Casales, M. Matveev, V. Mayes, B. Mehta, B. Messier, M. D. Meyer, H. Miao, T. Mikola, V. Miller, W. H. Mishra, S. Mishra, S. R. Mislivec, A. Mohanta, R. Moren, A. Morozova, A. Mu, W. Mualem, L. Muether, M. Mulder, K. Naples, D. Nath, A. Nayak, N. Nelleri, S. Nelson, J. K. Nichol, R. Niner, E. Norman, A. Norrick, A. Nosek, T. Oh, H. Olshevskiy, A. Olson, T. Ott, J. Pal, A. Paley, J. Panda, L. Patterson, R. B. Pawloski, G. Pershey, D. Petrova, O. Petti, R. Phan, D. D. Plunkett, R. K. Pobedimov, A. Porter, J. C. C. Rafique, A. Prais, L. R. Raj, V. Rajaoalisoa, M. Ramson, B. Rebel, B. Rojas, P. Roy, P. Ryabov, V. Samoylov, O. Sanchez, M. C. Falero, S. Sánchez Shanahan, P. Sharma, P. Shukla, S. Sheshukov, A. Singh, I. Singh, P. Singh, V. Smith, E. Smolik, J. Snopok, P. Solomey, N. Sousa, A. Soustruznik, K. Strait, M. Suter, L. Sutton, A. Swain, S. Sweeney, C. Sztuc, A. Oregui, B. Tapia Tas, P. Temizel, B. N. Thakore, T. Thayyullathil, R. B. Thomas, J. Tiras, E. Tripathi, J. Trokan-Tenorio, J. Torun, Y. Urheim, J. Vahle, P. Vallari, Z. Vasel, J. Vrba, T. Wallbank, M. Warburton, T. K. Wetstein, M. Whittington, D. Wickremasinghe, D. A. Wieber, T. Wolcott, J. Wrobel, M. Wu, W. Xiao, Y. Yaeggy, B. Dombara, A. Yallappa Yankelevich, A. Yonehara, K. Yu, S. Yu, Y. Zadorozhnyy, S. Zalesak, J. Zhang, Y. Zwaska, R.
author_facet	Acero, M. A. Acharya, B. Adamson, P. Aliaga, L. Anfimov, N. Antoshkin, A. Arrieta-Diaz, E. Asquith, L. Aurisano, A. Back, A. Backhouse, C. Baird, M. Balashov, N. Baldi, P. Bambah, B. A. Bashar, S. Bat, A. Bays, K. Bernstein, R. Bhatnagar, V. Bhattarai, D. Bhuyan, B. Bian, J. Booth, A. C. Bowles, R. Brahma, B. Bromberg, C. Buchanan, N. Butkevich, A. Calvez, S. Carroll, T. J. Catano-Mur, E. Chatla, A. Chirco, R. Choudhary, B. C. Choudhary, S. Christensen, A. Coan, T. E. Colo, M. Cremonesi, L. Davies, G. S. Derwent, P. F. Ding, P. Djurcic, Z. Dolce, M. Doyle, D. Tonguino, D. Dueñas Dukes, E. C. Dye, A. Ehrlich, R. Elkins, M. Ewart, E. Feldman, G. J. Filip, P. Franc, J. Frank, M. J. Gallagher, H. R. Gandrajula, R. Gao, F. Giri, A. Gomes, R. A. Goodman, M. C. Grichine, V. Groh, M. Group, R. Guo, B. Habig, A. Hakl, F. Hall, A. Hartnell, J. Hatcher, R. Hausner, H. He, M. Heller, K. Hewes, V Himmel, A. Jargowsky, B. Jarosz, J. Jediny, F. Johnson, C. Judah, M. Kakorin, I. Kaplan, D. M. Kalitkina, A. Kleykamp, J. Klimov, O. Koerner, L. W. Kolupaeva, L. Kotelnikov, S. Kralik, R. Kullenberg, Ch. Kubu, M. Kumar, A. Kuruppu, C. D. Kus, V. Lackey, T. Lang, K. Lasorak, P. Lesmeister, J. Lin, S. Lister, A. Liu, J. Lokajicek, M. Lopez, J. M. C. Mahji, R. Magill, S. Plata, M. Manrique Mann, W. A. Manoharan, M. T. Marshak, M. L. Martinez-Casales, M. Matveev, V. Mayes, B. Mehta, B. Messier, M. D. Meyer, H. Miao, T. Mikola, V. Miller, W. H. Mishra, S. Mishra, S. R. Mislivec, A. Mohanta, R. Moren, A. Morozova, A. Mu, W. Mualem, L. Muether, M. Mulder, K. Naples, D. Nath, A. Nayak, N. Nelleri, S. Nelson, J. K. Nichol, R. Niner, E. Norman, A. Norrick, A. Nosek, T. Oh, H. Olshevskiy, A. Olson, T. Ott, J. Pal, A. Paley, J. Panda, L. Patterson, R. B. Pawloski, G. Pershey, D. Petrova, O. Petti, R. Phan, D. D. Plunkett, R. K. Pobedimov, A. Porter, J. C. C. Rafique, A. Prais, L. R. Raj, V. Rajaoalisoa, M. Ramson, B. Rebel, B. Rojas, P. Roy, P. Ryabov, V. Samoylov, O. Sanchez, M. C. Falero, S. Sánchez Shanahan, P. Sharma, P. Shukla, S. Sheshukov, A. Singh, I. Singh, P. Singh, V. Smith, E. Smolik, J. Snopok, P. Solomey, N. Sousa, A. Soustruznik, K. Strait, M. Suter, L. Sutton, A. Swain, S. Sweeney, C. Sztuc, A. Oregui, B. Tapia Tas, P. Temizel, B. N. Thakore, T. Thayyullathil, R. B. Thomas, J. Tiras, E. Tripathi, J. Trokan-Tenorio, J. Torun, Y. Urheim, J. Vahle, P. Vallari, Z. Vasel, J. Vrba, T. Wallbank, M. Warburton, T. K. Wetstein, M. Whittington, D. Wickremasinghe, D. A. Wieber, T. Wolcott, J. Wrobel, M. Wu, W. Xiao, Y. Yaeggy, B. Dombara, A. Yallappa Yankelevich, A. Yonehara, K. Yu, S. Yu, Y. Zadorozhnyy, S. Zalesak, J. Zhang, Y. Zwaska, R.
contents	Measuring observables to constrain models using maximum-likelihood estimation is fundamental to many physics experiments. Wilks' theorem provides a simple way to construct confidence intervals on model parameters, but it only applies under certain conditions. These conditions, such as nested hypotheses and unbounded parameters, are often violated in neutrino oscillation measurements and other experimental scenarios. Monte Carlo methods can address these issues, albeit at increased computational cost. In the presence of nuisance parameters, however, the best way to implement a Monte Carlo method is ambiguous. This paper documents the method selected by the NOvA experiment, the profile construction. It presents the toy studies that informed the choice of method, details of its implementation, and tests performed to validate it. It also includes some practical considerations which may be of use to others choosing to use the profile construction.
format	Preprint
id	arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2207_14353
institution	arXiv
publishDate	2022
record_format	arxiv
spellingShingle	Monte Carlo method for constructing confidence intervals with unconstrained and constrained nuisance parameters in the NOvA experiment Acero, M. A. Acharya, B. Adamson, P. Aliaga, L. Anfimov, N. Antoshkin, A. Arrieta-Diaz, E. Asquith, L. Aurisano, A. Back, A. Backhouse, C. Baird, M. Balashov, N. Baldi, P. Bambah, B. A. Bashar, S. Bat, A. Bays, K. Bernstein, R. Bhatnagar, V. Bhattarai, D. Bhuyan, B. Bian, J. Booth, A. C. Bowles, R. Brahma, B. Bromberg, C. Buchanan, N. Butkevich, A. Calvez, S. Carroll, T. J. Catano-Mur, E. Chatla, A. Chirco, R. Choudhary, B. C. Choudhary, S. Christensen, A. Coan, T. E. Colo, M. Cremonesi, L. Davies, G. S. Derwent, P. F. Ding, P. Djurcic, Z. Dolce, M. Doyle, D. Tonguino, D. Dueñas Dukes, E. C. Dye, A. Ehrlich, R. Elkins, M. Ewart, E. Feldman, G. J. Filip, P. Franc, J. Frank, M. J. Gallagher, H. R. Gandrajula, R. Gao, F. Giri, A. Gomes, R. A. Goodman, M. C. Grichine, V. Groh, M. Group, R. Guo, B. Habig, A. Hakl, F. Hall, A. Hartnell, J. Hatcher, R. Hausner, H. He, M. Heller, K. Hewes, V Himmel, A. Jargowsky, B. Jarosz, J. Jediny, F. Johnson, C. Judah, M. Kakorin, I. Kaplan, D. M. Kalitkina, A. Kleykamp, J. Klimov, O. Koerner, L. W. Kolupaeva, L. Kotelnikov, S. Kralik, R. Kullenberg, Ch. Kubu, M. Kumar, A. Kuruppu, C. D. Kus, V. Lackey, T. Lang, K. Lasorak, P. Lesmeister, J. Lin, S. Lister, A. Liu, J. Lokajicek, M. Lopez, J. M. C. Mahji, R. Magill, S. Plata, M. Manrique Mann, W. A. Manoharan, M. T. Marshak, M. L. Martinez-Casales, M. Matveev, V. Mayes, B. Mehta, B. Messier, M. D. Meyer, H. Miao, T. Mikola, V. Miller, W. H. Mishra, S. Mishra, S. R. Mislivec, A. Mohanta, R. Moren, A. Morozova, A. Mu, W. Mualem, L. Muether, M. Mulder, K. Naples, D. Nath, A. Nayak, N. Nelleri, S. Nelson, J. K. Nichol, R. Niner, E. Norman, A. Norrick, A. Nosek, T. Oh, H. Olshevskiy, A. Olson, T. Ott, J. Pal, A. Paley, J. Panda, L. Patterson, R. B. Pawloski, G. Pershey, D. Petrova, O. Petti, R. Phan, D. D. Plunkett, R. K. Pobedimov, A. Porter, J. C. C. Rafique, A. Prais, L. R. Raj, V. Rajaoalisoa, M. Ramson, B. Rebel, B. Rojas, P. Roy, P. Ryabov, V. Samoylov, O. Sanchez, M. C. Falero, S. Sánchez Shanahan, P. Sharma, P. Shukla, S. Sheshukov, A. Singh, I. Singh, P. Singh, V. Smith, E. Smolik, J. Snopok, P. Solomey, N. Sousa, A. Soustruznik, K. Strait, M. Suter, L. Sutton, A. Swain, S. Sweeney, C. Sztuc, A. Oregui, B. Tapia Tas, P. Temizel, B. N. Thakore, T. Thayyullathil, R. B. Thomas, J. Tiras, E. Tripathi, J. Trokan-Tenorio, J. Torun, Y. Urheim, J. Vahle, P. Vallari, Z. Vasel, J. Vrba, T. Wallbank, M. Warburton, T. K. Wetstein, M. Whittington, D. Wickremasinghe, D. A. Wieber, T. Wolcott, J. Wrobel, M. Wu, W. Xiao, Y. Yaeggy, B. Dombara, A. Yallappa Yankelevich, A. Yonehara, K. Yu, S. Yu, Y. Zadorozhnyy, S. Zalesak, J. Zhang, Y. Zwaska, R. High Energy Physics - Experiment Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability Measuring observables to constrain models using maximum-likelihood estimation is fundamental to many physics experiments. Wilks' theorem provides a simple way to construct confidence intervals on model parameters, but it only applies under certain conditions. These conditions, such as nested hypotheses and unbounded parameters, are often violated in neutrino oscillation measurements and other experimental scenarios. Monte Carlo methods can address these issues, albeit at increased computational cost. In the presence of nuisance parameters, however, the best way to implement a Monte Carlo method is ambiguous. This paper documents the method selected by the NOvA experiment, the profile construction. It presents the toy studies that informed the choice of method, details of its implementation, and tests performed to validate it. It also includes some practical considerations which may be of use to others choosing to use the profile construction.
title	Monte Carlo method for constructing confidence intervals with unconstrained and constrained nuisance parameters in the NOvA experiment
topic	High Energy Physics - Experiment Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability
url	https://arxiv.org/abs/2207.14353