Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Preprint |
| Published: |
2022
|
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://arxiv.org/abs/2208.10106 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1866910296800493568 |
|---|---|
| author | Stoyan, Dietrich Chiu, Sung Nok |
| author_facet | Stoyan, Dietrich Chiu, Sung Nok |
| contents | In a recent prominent study Worobey et al.\ (2022, Science, 377, pp.\ 951--9) purported to demonstrate statistically that the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market was the epicenter of the early COVID-19 epidemic. We show that this statistical conclusion is invalid on two grounds: (1) The assumption that a centroid of early case locations or another simply constructed point is the origin of an epidemic is unproved. (2) A Monte Carlo test used to conclude that no other location than the seafood market can be the origin is flawed. Hence, the question of the origin of the pandemic has not been answered by their statistical analysis. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2208_10106 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2022 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Statistics did not prove that the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market was the early epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic Stoyan, Dietrich Chiu, Sung Nok Applications Methodology In a recent prominent study Worobey et al.\ (2022, Science, 377, pp.\ 951--9) purported to demonstrate statistically that the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market was the epicenter of the early COVID-19 epidemic. We show that this statistical conclusion is invalid on two grounds: (1) The assumption that a centroid of early case locations or another simply constructed point is the origin of an epidemic is unproved. (2) A Monte Carlo test used to conclude that no other location than the seafood market can be the origin is flawed. Hence, the question of the origin of the pandemic has not been answered by their statistical analysis. |
| title | Statistics did not prove that the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market was the early epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic |
| topic | Applications Methodology |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2208.10106 |