Triadic Temporal Exponential Random Graph Models (TTERGM)
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arXiv
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| Hauptverfasser: | , , , |
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| Format: | Preprint |
| Veröffentlicht: |
2022
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| _version_ | 1866916392960262144 |
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| author | Huang, Yifan Barham, Clayton Page, Eric Douglas, PK |
| author_facet | Huang, Yifan Barham, Clayton Page, Eric Douglas, PK |
| contents | Temporal exponential random graph models (TERGM) are powerful statistical models that can be used to infer the temporal pattern of edge formation and elimination in complex networks (e.g., social networks). TERGMs can also be used in a generative capacity to predict longitudinal time series data in these evolving graphs. However, parameter estimation within this framework fails to capture many real-world properties of social networks, including: triadic relationships, small world characteristics, and social learning theories which could be used to constrain the probabilistic estimation of dyadic covariates. Here, we propose triadic temporal exponential random graph models (TTERGM) to fill this void, which includes these hierarchical network relationships within the graph model. We represent social network learning theory as an additional probability distribution that optimizes Markov chains in the graph vector space. The new parameters are then approximated via Monte Carlo maximum likelihood estimation. We show that our TTERGM model achieves improved fidelity and more accurate predictions compared to several benchmark methods on GitHub network data. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2211_16229 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2022 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Triadic Temporal Exponential Random Graph Models (TTERGM) Huang, Yifan Barham, Clayton Page, Eric Douglas, PK Social and Information Networks Physics and Society Machine Learning Temporal exponential random graph models (TERGM) are powerful statistical models that can be used to infer the temporal pattern of edge formation and elimination in complex networks (e.g., social networks). TERGMs can also be used in a generative capacity to predict longitudinal time series data in these evolving graphs. However, parameter estimation within this framework fails to capture many real-world properties of social networks, including: triadic relationships, small world characteristics, and social learning theories which could be used to constrain the probabilistic estimation of dyadic covariates. Here, we propose triadic temporal exponential random graph models (TTERGM) to fill this void, which includes these hierarchical network relationships within the graph model. We represent social network learning theory as an additional probability distribution that optimizes Markov chains in the graph vector space. The new parameters are then approximated via Monte Carlo maximum likelihood estimation. We show that our TTERGM model achieves improved fidelity and more accurate predictions compared to several benchmark methods on GitHub network data. |
| title | Triadic Temporal Exponential Random Graph Models (TTERGM) |
| topic | Social and Information Networks Physics and Society Machine Learning |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2211.16229 |