Duration of Transients in Outbreaks: When can Infectiousness be Estimated?
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arXiv
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| Hauptverfasser: | , |
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| Format: | Preprint |
| Veröffentlicht: |
2023
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| _version_ | 1866908385457209344 |
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| author | Mielke, Adam Christiansen, Lasse Engbo |
| author_facet | Mielke, Adam Christiansen, Lasse Engbo |
| contents | We investigate sub-leading orders of the classic SEIR-model using contact matrices from modeling of the Omicron and Delta variants of COVID-19 in Denmark. The goal of this is to illustrate when the growth rate, and by extension the infection transmission potential (basic or initial reproduction number), can be estimated in a new outbreak, e.g. after introduction of a new variant of a virus. In particular, we look at the time scale on which this happens in a realistic outbreak to guide future data collection. We find that as long as susceptible depletion is a minor effect, the transients are gone within around 3 weeks corresponding to about 4-5 times the incubation time. We also argue that this result generalizes to other airborne diseases in a fully mixed population. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2302_01076 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2023 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Duration of Transients in Outbreaks: When can Infectiousness be Estimated? Mielke, Adam Christiansen, Lasse Engbo Populations and Evolution We investigate sub-leading orders of the classic SEIR-model using contact matrices from modeling of the Omicron and Delta variants of COVID-19 in Denmark. The goal of this is to illustrate when the growth rate, and by extension the infection transmission potential (basic or initial reproduction number), can be estimated in a new outbreak, e.g. after introduction of a new variant of a virus. In particular, we look at the time scale on which this happens in a realistic outbreak to guide future data collection. We find that as long as susceptible depletion is a minor effect, the transients are gone within around 3 weeks corresponding to about 4-5 times the incubation time. We also argue that this result generalizes to other airborne diseases in a fully mixed population. |
| title | Duration of Transients in Outbreaks: When can Infectiousness be Estimated? |
| topic | Populations and Evolution |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2302.01076 |