A Modified CTGAN-Plus-Features Based Method for Optimal Asset Allocation

Fuente: arXiv
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Main Authors: Peña, José-Manuel, Suárez, Fernando, Larré, Omar, Ramírez, Domingo, Cifuentes, Arturo
Format: Preprint
Published: 2023
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author Peña, José-Manuel
Suárez, Fernando
Larré, Omar
Ramírez, Domingo
Cifuentes, Arturo
author_facet Peña, José-Manuel
Suárez, Fernando
Larré, Omar
Ramírez, Domingo
Cifuentes, Arturo
contents We propose a new approach to portfolio optimization that utilizes a unique combination of synthetic data generation and a CVaR-constraint. We formulate the portfolio optimization problem as an asset allocation problem in which each asset class is accessed through a passive (index) fund. The asset-class weights are determined by solving an optimization problem which includes a CVaR-constraint. The optimization is carried out by means of a Modified CTGAN algorithm which incorporates features (contextual information) and is used to generate synthetic return scenarios, which, in turn, are fed into the optimization engine. For contextual information we rely on several points along the U.S. Treasury yield curve. The merits of this approach are demonstrated with an example based on ten asset classes (covering stocks, bonds, and commodities) over a fourteen-and-half year period (January 2008-June 2022). We also show that the synthetic generation process is able to capture well the key characteristics of the original data, and the optimization scheme results in portfolios that exhibit satisfactory out-of-sample performance. We also show that this approach outperforms the conventional equal-weights (1/N) asset allocation strategy and other optimization formulations based on historical data only.
format Preprint
id arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2302_02269
institution arXiv
publishDate 2023
record_format arxiv
spellingShingle A Modified CTGAN-Plus-Features Based Method for Optimal Asset Allocation
Peña, José-Manuel
Suárez, Fernando
Larré, Omar
Ramírez, Domingo
Cifuentes, Arturo
Portfolio Management
Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science
We propose a new approach to portfolio optimization that utilizes a unique combination of synthetic data generation and a CVaR-constraint. We formulate the portfolio optimization problem as an asset allocation problem in which each asset class is accessed through a passive (index) fund. The asset-class weights are determined by solving an optimization problem which includes a CVaR-constraint. The optimization is carried out by means of a Modified CTGAN algorithm which incorporates features (contextual information) and is used to generate synthetic return scenarios, which, in turn, are fed into the optimization engine. For contextual information we rely on several points along the U.S. Treasury yield curve. The merits of this approach are demonstrated with an example based on ten asset classes (covering stocks, bonds, and commodities) over a fourteen-and-half year period (January 2008-June 2022). We also show that the synthetic generation process is able to capture well the key characteristics of the original data, and the optimization scheme results in portfolios that exhibit satisfactory out-of-sample performance. We also show that this approach outperforms the conventional equal-weights (1/N) asset allocation strategy and other optimization formulations based on historical data only.
title A Modified CTGAN-Plus-Features Based Method for Optimal Asset Allocation
topic Portfolio Management
Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science
url https://arxiv.org/abs/2302.02269