Fundamental Bound on Epidemic Overshoot in the SIR Model
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arXiv
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| Auteurs principaux: | , , , |
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| Format: | Preprint |
| Publié: |
2023
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| _version_ | 1866913285315493888 |
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| author | Nguyen, Maximilian Freedman, Ari Ozbay, Sinan Levin, Simon |
| author_facet | Nguyen, Maximilian Freedman, Ari Ozbay, Sinan Levin, Simon |
| contents | We derive an exact upper bound on the epidemic overshoot for the Kermack-McKendrick SIR model. This maximal overshoot value of 0.2984... occurs at $R_0^*$ = 2.151... . In considering the utility of the notion of overshoot, a rudimentary analysis of data from the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Manaus, Brazil highlights the public health hazard posed by overshoot for epidemics with $R_0$ near 2. Using the general analysis framework presented within, we then consider more complex SIR models that incorporate vaccination. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2303_01650 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2023 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Fundamental Bound on Epidemic Overshoot in the SIR Model Nguyen, Maximilian Freedman, Ari Ozbay, Sinan Levin, Simon Populations and Evolution Biological Physics Physics and Society We derive an exact upper bound on the epidemic overshoot for the Kermack-McKendrick SIR model. This maximal overshoot value of 0.2984... occurs at $R_0^*$ = 2.151... . In considering the utility of the notion of overshoot, a rudimentary analysis of data from the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Manaus, Brazil highlights the public health hazard posed by overshoot for epidemics with $R_0$ near 2. Using the general analysis framework presented within, we then consider more complex SIR models that incorporate vaccination. |
| title | Fundamental Bound on Epidemic Overshoot in the SIR Model |
| topic | Populations and Evolution Biological Physics Physics and Society |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.01650 |