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Main Authors: Uematsu, Yoshimasa, Yamagata, Takashi
Format: Preprint
Published: 2023
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Online Access:https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.15158
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author Uematsu, Yoshimasa
Yamagata, Takashi
author_facet Uematsu, Yoshimasa
Yamagata, Takashi
contents This paper proposes novel inferential procedures for discovering the network Granger causality in high-dimensional vector autoregressive models. In particular, we mainly offer two multiple testing procedures designed to control the false discovery rate (FDR). The first procedure is based on the limiting normal distribution of the $t$-statistics with the debiased lasso estimator. The second procedure is its bootstrap version. We also provide a robustification of the first procedure against any cross-sectional dependence using asymptotic e-variables. Their theoretical properties, including FDR control and power guarantee, are investigated. The finite sample evidence suggests that both procedures can successfully control the FDR while maintaining high power. Finally, the proposed methods are applied to discovering the network Granger causality in a large number of macroeconomic variables and regional house prices in the UK.
format Preprint
id arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2303_15158
institution arXiv
publishDate 2023
record_format arxiv
spellingShingle Discovering the Network Granger Causality in Large Vector Autoregressive Models
Uematsu, Yoshimasa
Yamagata, Takashi
Methodology
This paper proposes novel inferential procedures for discovering the network Granger causality in high-dimensional vector autoregressive models. In particular, we mainly offer two multiple testing procedures designed to control the false discovery rate (FDR). The first procedure is based on the limiting normal distribution of the $t$-statistics with the debiased lasso estimator. The second procedure is its bootstrap version. We also provide a robustification of the first procedure against any cross-sectional dependence using asymptotic e-variables. Their theoretical properties, including FDR control and power guarantee, are investigated. The finite sample evidence suggests that both procedures can successfully control the FDR while maintaining high power. Finally, the proposed methods are applied to discovering the network Granger causality in a large number of macroeconomic variables and regional house prices in the UK.
title Discovering the Network Granger Causality in Large Vector Autoregressive Models
topic Methodology
url https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.15158