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| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Preprint |
| Published: |
2023
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.15723 |
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Table of Contents:
- We revisit Popper's falsifiability criterion. A tester hires a potential expert to produce a theory, offering payments contingent on the observed performance of the theory. In our model, instead of knowing the true data-generating process, the expert knows the state-of-the-art belief over data-generating processes. A non-expert does not. We argue that if the expert can, moreover, acquire additional information to refine this knowledge, falsifiability does have the power to distinguish between experts and non-experts and to identify valuable theories, capitalizing on experts' ability to acquire and refine knowledge.