Inductive biases in deep learning models for weather prediction

Fuente: arXiv
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Main Authors: Thuemmel, Jannik, Karlbauer, Matthias, Otte, Sebastian, Zarfl, Christiane, Martius, Georg, Ludwig, Nicole, Scholten, Thomas, Friedrich, Ulrich, Wulfmeyer, Volker, Goswami, Bedartha, Butz, Martin V.
Format: Preprint
Published: 2023
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author Thuemmel, Jannik
Karlbauer, Matthias
Otte, Sebastian
Zarfl, Christiane
Martius, Georg
Ludwig, Nicole
Scholten, Thomas
Friedrich, Ulrich
Wulfmeyer, Volker
Goswami, Bedartha
Butz, Martin V.
author_facet Thuemmel, Jannik
Karlbauer, Matthias
Otte, Sebastian
Zarfl, Christiane
Martius, Georg
Ludwig, Nicole
Scholten, Thomas
Friedrich, Ulrich
Wulfmeyer, Volker
Goswami, Bedartha
Butz, Martin V.
contents Deep learning has gained immense popularity in the Earth sciences as it enables us to formulate purely data-driven models of complex Earth system processes. Deep learning-based weather prediction (DLWP) models have made significant progress in the last few years, achieving forecast skills comparable to established numerical weather prediction models with comparatively lesser computational costs. In order to train accurate, reliable, and tractable DLWP models with several millions of parameters, the model design needs to incorporate suitable inductive biases that encode structural assumptions about the data and the modelled processes. When chosen appropriately, these biases enable faster learning and better generalisation to unseen data. Although inductive biases play a crucial role in successful DLWP models, they are often not stated explicitly and their contribution to model performance remains unclear. Here, we review and analyse the inductive biases of state-of-the-art DLWP models with respect to five key design elements: data selection, learning objective, loss function, architecture, and optimisation method. We identify the most important inductive biases and highlight potential avenues towards more efficient and probabilistic DLWP models.
format Preprint
id arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2304_04664
institution arXiv
publishDate 2023
record_format arxiv
spellingShingle Inductive biases in deep learning models for weather prediction
Thuemmel, Jannik
Karlbauer, Matthias
Otte, Sebastian
Zarfl, Christiane
Martius, Georg
Ludwig, Nicole
Scholten, Thomas
Friedrich, Ulrich
Wulfmeyer, Volker
Goswami, Bedartha
Butz, Martin V.
Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics
Machine Learning
Deep learning has gained immense popularity in the Earth sciences as it enables us to formulate purely data-driven models of complex Earth system processes. Deep learning-based weather prediction (DLWP) models have made significant progress in the last few years, achieving forecast skills comparable to established numerical weather prediction models with comparatively lesser computational costs. In order to train accurate, reliable, and tractable DLWP models with several millions of parameters, the model design needs to incorporate suitable inductive biases that encode structural assumptions about the data and the modelled processes. When chosen appropriately, these biases enable faster learning and better generalisation to unseen data. Although inductive biases play a crucial role in successful DLWP models, they are often not stated explicitly and their contribution to model performance remains unclear. Here, we review and analyse the inductive biases of state-of-the-art DLWP models with respect to five key design elements: data selection, learning objective, loss function, architecture, and optimisation method. We identify the most important inductive biases and highlight potential avenues towards more efficient and probabilistic DLWP models.
title Inductive biases in deep learning models for weather prediction
topic Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics
Machine Learning
url https://arxiv.org/abs/2304.04664