Off-policy evaluation beyond overlap: partial identification through smoothness
Fuente:
arXiv
Guardado en:
| Autores principales: | , , |
|---|---|
| Formato: | Preprint |
| Publicado: |
2023
|
| Materias: | |
| Acceso en línea: | |
| Etiquetas: |
Agregar Etiqueta
Sin Etiquetas, Sea el primero en etiquetar este registro!
|
| _version_ | 1866911792034217984 |
|---|---|
| author | Khan, Samir Saveski, Martin Ugander, Johan |
| author_facet | Khan, Samir Saveski, Martin Ugander, Johan |
| contents | Off-policy evaluation (OPE) is the problem of estimating the value of a target policy using historical data collected under a different logging policy. OPE methods typically assume overlap between the target and logging policy, enabling solutions based on importance weighting and/or imputation. In this work, we approach OPE without assuming either overlap or a well-specified model by considering a strategy based on partial identification under non-parametric assumptions on the conditional mean function, focusing especially on Lipschitz smoothness. Under such smoothness assumptions, we formulate a pair of linear programs whose optimal values upper and lower bound the contributions of the no-overlap region to the off-policy value. We show that these linear programs have a concise closed form solution that can be computed efficiently and that their solutions converge, under the Lipschitz assumption, to the sharp partial identification bounds on the off-policy value. Furthermore, we show that the rate of convergence is minimax optimal, up to log factors. We deploy our methods on two semi-synthetic examples, and obtain informative and valid bounds that are tighter than those possible without smoothness assumptions. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2305_11812 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2023 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Off-policy evaluation beyond overlap: partial identification through smoothness Khan, Samir Saveski, Martin Ugander, Johan Methodology Statistics Theory Off-policy evaluation (OPE) is the problem of estimating the value of a target policy using historical data collected under a different logging policy. OPE methods typically assume overlap between the target and logging policy, enabling solutions based on importance weighting and/or imputation. In this work, we approach OPE without assuming either overlap or a well-specified model by considering a strategy based on partial identification under non-parametric assumptions on the conditional mean function, focusing especially on Lipschitz smoothness. Under such smoothness assumptions, we formulate a pair of linear programs whose optimal values upper and lower bound the contributions of the no-overlap region to the off-policy value. We show that these linear programs have a concise closed form solution that can be computed efficiently and that their solutions converge, under the Lipschitz assumption, to the sharp partial identification bounds on the off-policy value. Furthermore, we show that the rate of convergence is minimax optimal, up to log factors. We deploy our methods on two semi-synthetic examples, and obtain informative and valid bounds that are tighter than those possible without smoothness assumptions. |
| title | Off-policy evaluation beyond overlap: partial identification through smoothness |
| topic | Methodology Statistics Theory |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2305.11812 |