Confirmatory adaptive group sequential designs for clinical trials with multiple time-to-event outcomes in Markov models

Fuente: arXiv
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Main Authors: Danzer, Moritz Fabian, Faldum, Andreas, Simon, Thorsten, Hero, Barbara, Schmidt, Rene
Format: Preprint
Published: 2023
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_version_ 1866914356734722048
author Danzer, Moritz Fabian
Faldum, Andreas
Simon, Thorsten
Hero, Barbara
Schmidt, Rene
author_facet Danzer, Moritz Fabian
Faldum, Andreas
Simon, Thorsten
Hero, Barbara
Schmidt, Rene
contents The analysis of multiple time-to-event outcomes in a randomised controlled clinical trial can be accomplished with exisiting methods. However, depending on the characteristics of the disease under investigation and the circumstances in which the study is planned, it may be of interest to conduct interim analyses and adapt the study design if necessary. Due to the expected dependency of the endpoints, the full available information on the involved endpoints may not be used for this purpose. We suggest a solution to this problem by embedding the endpoints in a multi-state model. If this model is Markovian, it is possible to take the disease history of the patients into account and allow for data-dependent design adaptiations. To this end, we introduce a flexible test procedure for a variety of applications, but are particularly concerned with the simultaneous consideration of progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS). This setting is of key interest in oncological trials. We conduct simulation studies to determine the properties for small sample sizes and demonstrate an application based on data from the NB2004-HR study.
format Preprint
id arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2306_16056
institution arXiv
publishDate 2023
record_format arxiv
spellingShingle Confirmatory adaptive group sequential designs for clinical trials with multiple time-to-event outcomes in Markov models
Danzer, Moritz Fabian
Faldum, Andreas
Simon, Thorsten
Hero, Barbara
Schmidt, Rene
Methodology
62N03
G.3.16
The analysis of multiple time-to-event outcomes in a randomised controlled clinical trial can be accomplished with exisiting methods. However, depending on the characteristics of the disease under investigation and the circumstances in which the study is planned, it may be of interest to conduct interim analyses and adapt the study design if necessary. Due to the expected dependency of the endpoints, the full available information on the involved endpoints may not be used for this purpose. We suggest a solution to this problem by embedding the endpoints in a multi-state model. If this model is Markovian, it is possible to take the disease history of the patients into account and allow for data-dependent design adaptiations. To this end, we introduce a flexible test procedure for a variety of applications, but are particularly concerned with the simultaneous consideration of progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS). This setting is of key interest in oncological trials. We conduct simulation studies to determine the properties for small sample sizes and demonstrate an application based on data from the NB2004-HR study.
title Confirmatory adaptive group sequential designs for clinical trials with multiple time-to-event outcomes in Markov models
topic Methodology
62N03
G.3.16
url https://arxiv.org/abs/2306.16056