A Comprehensive Framework for Evaluating Time to Event Predictions using the Restricted Mean Survival Time

Fuente: arXiv
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Main Authors: Cwiling, Ariane, Perduca, Vittorio, Bouaziz, Olivier
Format: Preprint
Published: 2023
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author Cwiling, Ariane
Perduca, Vittorio
Bouaziz, Olivier
author_facet Cwiling, Ariane
Perduca, Vittorio
Bouaziz, Olivier
contents The restricted mean survival time (RMST) is a widely used quantity in survival analysis due to its straightforward interpretation. For instance, predicting the time to event based on patient attributes is of great interest when analyzing medical data. In this paper, we propose a novel framework for evaluating RMST estimations. A criterion that estimates the mean squared error of an RMST estimator using Inverse Probability Censoring Weighting (IPCW) is presented. A model-agnostic conformal algorithm adapted to right-censored data is also introduced to compute prediction intervals and to evaluate local variable importance. Finally, a model-agnostic statistical test is developed to assess global variable importance. Our framework is valid for any RMST estimator that is asymptotically convergent and works under model misspecification.
format Preprint
id arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2306_16075
institution arXiv
publishDate 2023
record_format arxiv
spellingShingle A Comprehensive Framework for Evaluating Time to Event Predictions using the Restricted Mean Survival Time
Cwiling, Ariane
Perduca, Vittorio
Bouaziz, Olivier
Statistics Theory
Applications
The restricted mean survival time (RMST) is a widely used quantity in survival analysis due to its straightforward interpretation. For instance, predicting the time to event based on patient attributes is of great interest when analyzing medical data. In this paper, we propose a novel framework for evaluating RMST estimations. A criterion that estimates the mean squared error of an RMST estimator using Inverse Probability Censoring Weighting (IPCW) is presented. A model-agnostic conformal algorithm adapted to right-censored data is also introduced to compute prediction intervals and to evaluate local variable importance. Finally, a model-agnostic statistical test is developed to assess global variable importance. Our framework is valid for any RMST estimator that is asymptotically convergent and works under model misspecification.
title A Comprehensive Framework for Evaluating Time to Event Predictions using the Restricted Mean Survival Time
topic Statistics Theory
Applications
url https://arxiv.org/abs/2306.16075