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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Malmström, Magnus, Skog, Isaac, Axehill, Daniel, Gustafsson, Fredrik
Format: Preprint
Published: 2023
Subjects:
Online Access:https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.01031
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author Malmström, Magnus
Skog, Isaac
Axehill, Daniel
Gustafsson, Fredrik
author_facet Malmström, Magnus
Skog, Isaac
Axehill, Daniel
Gustafsson, Fredrik
contents The uncertainty in the prediction calculated using the delta method for an overparameterized (parametric) black-box model is shown to be larger or equal to the uncertainty in the prediction of a canonical (minimal) model. Equality holds if the additional parameters of the overparameterized model do not add flexibility to the model. As a conclusion, for an overparameterized black-box model, the calculated uncertainty in the prediction by the delta method is not underestimated. The results are shown analytically and are validated in a simulation experiment where the relationship between the normalized traction force and the wheel slip of a car is modelled using e.g., a neural network
format Preprint
id arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2307_01031
institution arXiv
publishDate 2023
record_format arxiv
spellingShingle On the validity of using the delta method for calculating the uncertainty of the predictions from an overparameterized model
Malmström, Magnus
Skog, Isaac
Axehill, Daniel
Gustafsson, Fredrik
Systems and Control
The uncertainty in the prediction calculated using the delta method for an overparameterized (parametric) black-box model is shown to be larger or equal to the uncertainty in the prediction of a canonical (minimal) model. Equality holds if the additional parameters of the overparameterized model do not add flexibility to the model. As a conclusion, for an overparameterized black-box model, the calculated uncertainty in the prediction by the delta method is not underestimated. The results are shown analytically and are validated in a simulation experiment where the relationship between the normalized traction force and the wheel slip of a car is modelled using e.g., a neural network
title On the validity of using the delta method for calculating the uncertainty of the predictions from an overparameterized model
topic Systems and Control
url https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.01031