Mitigating the choice of the duration in DDMS models through a parametric link
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arXiv
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| Autores principales: | , , |
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| Formato: | Preprint |
| Publicado: |
2023
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| _version_ | 1866908337946230784 |
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| author | Mendes, Fernando Henrique de Paula e Silva Turatti, Douglas Eduardo Pumi, Guilherme |
| author_facet | Mendes, Fernando Henrique de Paula e Silva Turatti, Douglas Eduardo Pumi, Guilherme |
| contents | One of the most important hyper-parameters in duration-dependent Markov-switching (DDMS) models is the duration of the hidden states. Because there is currently no procedure for estimating this duration or testing whether a given duration is appropriate for a given data set, an ad hoc duration choice must be heuristically justified. In this paper, we propose and examine a methodology that mitigates the choice of duration in DDMS models when forecasting is the goal. Two Monte Carlo simulations, based on classical applications of DDMS models, are employed to evaluate the methodology. In addition, an empirical investigation is carried out to forecast the volatility of the S\&P 500, which showcases the capabilities of the proposed model. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2307_01405 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2023 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Mitigating the choice of the duration in DDMS models through a parametric link Mendes, Fernando Henrique de Paula e Silva Turatti, Douglas Eduardo Pumi, Guilherme Applications Statistics Theory 62M10, 62F10, 91B84 One of the most important hyper-parameters in duration-dependent Markov-switching (DDMS) models is the duration of the hidden states. Because there is currently no procedure for estimating this duration or testing whether a given duration is appropriate for a given data set, an ad hoc duration choice must be heuristically justified. In this paper, we propose and examine a methodology that mitigates the choice of duration in DDMS models when forecasting is the goal. Two Monte Carlo simulations, based on classical applications of DDMS models, are employed to evaluate the methodology. In addition, an empirical investigation is carried out to forecast the volatility of the S\&P 500, which showcases the capabilities of the proposed model. |
| title | Mitigating the choice of the duration in DDMS models through a parametric link |
| topic | Applications Statistics Theory 62M10, 62F10, 91B84 |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.01405 |