Sufficientness postulates for measure-valued Pólya urn sequences

Fuente: arXiv
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Main Authors: Sariev, Hristo, Savov, Mladen
Format: Preprint
Published: 2023
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author Sariev, Hristo
Savov, Mladen
author_facet Sariev, Hristo
Savov, Mladen
contents In a recent paper, the authors studied the distribution properties of a class of exchangeable processes, called measure-valued Pólya sequences (MVPS), which arise as the observation process in a generalized urn sampling scheme. Here we present several results in the form of "sufficientness" postulates that characterize their predictive distributions. In particular, we show that exchangeable MVPSs are the unique exchangeable models whose predictive distributions are a mixture of the marginal distribution and the average of a probability kernel evaluated at past observation. When the latter coincides with the empirical measure, we recover a well-known result for the exchangeable model with a Dirichlet process prior. In addition, we provide a "pure" sufficientness postulate for exchangeable MVPSs that does not assume a particular analytic form for the predictive distributions. Two other sufficientness postulates consider the case when the state space is finite.
format Preprint
id arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2308_08317
institution arXiv
publishDate 2023
record_format arxiv
spellingShingle Sufficientness postulates for measure-valued Pólya urn sequences
Sariev, Hristo
Savov, Mladen
Probability
60G09, 60G25, 62G99, 62B99
In a recent paper, the authors studied the distribution properties of a class of exchangeable processes, called measure-valued Pólya sequences (MVPS), which arise as the observation process in a generalized urn sampling scheme. Here we present several results in the form of "sufficientness" postulates that characterize their predictive distributions. In particular, we show that exchangeable MVPSs are the unique exchangeable models whose predictive distributions are a mixture of the marginal distribution and the average of a probability kernel evaluated at past observation. When the latter coincides with the empirical measure, we recover a well-known result for the exchangeable model with a Dirichlet process prior. In addition, we provide a "pure" sufficientness postulate for exchangeable MVPSs that does not assume a particular analytic form for the predictive distributions. Two other sufficientness postulates consider the case when the state space is finite.
title Sufficientness postulates for measure-valued Pólya urn sequences
topic Probability
60G09, 60G25, 62G99, 62B99
url https://arxiv.org/abs/2308.08317