Beyond Gut Feel: Using Time Series Transformers to Find Investment Gems

Fuente: arXiv
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Main Authors: Cao, Lele, Halvardsson, Gustaf, McCornack, Andrew, von Ehrenheim, Vilhelm, Herman, Pawel
Format: Preprint
Published: 2023
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author Cao, Lele
Halvardsson, Gustaf
McCornack, Andrew
von Ehrenheim, Vilhelm
Herman, Pawel
author_facet Cao, Lele
Halvardsson, Gustaf
McCornack, Andrew
von Ehrenheim, Vilhelm
Herman, Pawel
contents This paper addresses the growing application of data-driven approaches within the Private Equity (PE) industry, particularly in sourcing investment targets (i.e., companies) for Venture Capital (VC) and Growth Capital (GC). We present a comprehensive review of the relevant approaches and propose a novel approach leveraging a Transformer-based Multivariate Time Series Classifier (TMTSC) for predicting the success likelihood of any candidate company. The objective of our research is to optimize sourcing performance for VC and GC investments by formally defining the sourcing problem as a multivariate time series classification task. We consecutively introduce the key components of our implementation which collectively contribute to the successful application of TMTSC in VC/GC sourcing: input features, model architecture, optimization target, and investor-centric data processing. Our extensive experiments on two real-world investment tasks, benchmarked towards three popular baselines, demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach in improving decision making within the VC and GC industry.
format Preprint
id arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2309_16888
institution arXiv
publishDate 2023
record_format arxiv
spellingShingle Beyond Gut Feel: Using Time Series Transformers to Find Investment Gems
Cao, Lele
Halvardsson, Gustaf
McCornack, Andrew
von Ehrenheim, Vilhelm
Herman, Pawel
Machine Learning
Artificial Intelligence
Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science
Portfolio Management
91B84 (Primary) 68T07 (Secondary)
I.2.6; I.2.1; H.4.0
This paper addresses the growing application of data-driven approaches within the Private Equity (PE) industry, particularly in sourcing investment targets (i.e., companies) for Venture Capital (VC) and Growth Capital (GC). We present a comprehensive review of the relevant approaches and propose a novel approach leveraging a Transformer-based Multivariate Time Series Classifier (TMTSC) for predicting the success likelihood of any candidate company. The objective of our research is to optimize sourcing performance for VC and GC investments by formally defining the sourcing problem as a multivariate time series classification task. We consecutively introduce the key components of our implementation which collectively contribute to the successful application of TMTSC in VC/GC sourcing: input features, model architecture, optimization target, and investor-centric data processing. Our extensive experiments on two real-world investment tasks, benchmarked towards three popular baselines, demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach in improving decision making within the VC and GC industry.
title Beyond Gut Feel: Using Time Series Transformers to Find Investment Gems
topic Machine Learning
Artificial Intelligence
Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science
Portfolio Management
91B84 (Primary) 68T07 (Secondary)
I.2.6; I.2.1; H.4.0
url https://arxiv.org/abs/2309.16888