Distribution-uniform anytime-valid sequential inference and the Robbins-Siegmund distributions
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arXiv
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| Autores principales: | , , |
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| Formato: | Preprint |
| Publicado: |
2023
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| _version_ | 1866908765650944000 |
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| author | Waudby-Smith, Ian Kennedy, Edward H. Ramdas, Aaditya |
| author_facet | Waudby-Smith, Ian Kennedy, Edward H. Ramdas, Aaditya |
| contents | This paper develops a theory of distribution- and time-uniform asymptotics, culminating in the first large-sample anytime-valid inference procedures that are shown to be uniformly valid in a rich class of distributions. Historically, anytime-valid methods -- including confidence sequences, anytime $p$-values, and sequential hypothesis tests -- have been justified nonasymptotically. By contrast, large-sample inference procedures such as those based on the central limit theorem occupy an important part of statistical toolbox due to their simplicity, universality, and the weak assumptions they make. While recent work has derived asymptotic analogues of anytime-valid methods, they were not distribution-uniform (also called \emph{honest}), meaning that their type-I errors may not be uniformly upper-bounded by the desired level in the limit. The theory and methods we outline resolve this tension, and they do so without imposing assumptions that are any stronger than the distribution-uniform fixed-$n$ (non-anytime-valid) counterparts or distribution-pointwise anytime-valid special cases. It is shown that certain ``Robbins-Siegmund'' probability distributions play roles in anytime-valid asymptotics analogous to those played by Gaussian distributions in standard asymptotics. As an application, we derive the first anytime-valid test of conditional independence without the Model-X assumption. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2311_03343 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2023 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Distribution-uniform anytime-valid sequential inference and the Robbins-Siegmund distributions Waudby-Smith, Ian Kennedy, Edward H. Ramdas, Aaditya Statistics Theory Methodology This paper develops a theory of distribution- and time-uniform asymptotics, culminating in the first large-sample anytime-valid inference procedures that are shown to be uniformly valid in a rich class of distributions. Historically, anytime-valid methods -- including confidence sequences, anytime $p$-values, and sequential hypothesis tests -- have been justified nonasymptotically. By contrast, large-sample inference procedures such as those based on the central limit theorem occupy an important part of statistical toolbox due to their simplicity, universality, and the weak assumptions they make. While recent work has derived asymptotic analogues of anytime-valid methods, they were not distribution-uniform (also called \emph{honest}), meaning that their type-I errors may not be uniformly upper-bounded by the desired level in the limit. The theory and methods we outline resolve this tension, and they do so without imposing assumptions that are any stronger than the distribution-uniform fixed-$n$ (non-anytime-valid) counterparts or distribution-pointwise anytime-valid special cases. It is shown that certain ``Robbins-Siegmund'' probability distributions play roles in anytime-valid asymptotics analogous to those played by Gaussian distributions in standard asymptotics. As an application, we derive the first anytime-valid test of conditional independence without the Model-X assumption. |
| title | Distribution-uniform anytime-valid sequential inference and the Robbins-Siegmund distributions |
| topic | Statistics Theory Methodology |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2311.03343 |