Probabilistic Scenario-Based Assessment of National Food Security Risks with Application to Egypt and Ethiopia
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arXiv
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| Auteurs principaux: | , , , |
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| Format: | Preprint |
| Publié: |
2023
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| _version_ | 1866909197247971328 |
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| author | Koundouri, Phoebe Papayiannis, Georgios I. Vassilopoulos, Achilleas Yannacopoulos, Athanasios N. |
| author_facet | Koundouri, Phoebe Papayiannis, Georgios I. Vassilopoulos, Achilleas Yannacopoulos, Athanasios N. |
| contents | This study presents a novel approach to assessing food security risks at the national level, employing a probabilistic scenario-based framework that integrates both Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP). This innovative method allows each scenario, encompassing socio-economic and climate factors, to be treated as a model capable of generating diverse trajectories. This approach offers a more dynamic understanding of food security risks under varying future conditions. The paper details the methodologies employed, showcasing their applicability through a focused analysis of food security challenges in Egypt and Ethiopia, and underscores the importance of considering a spectrum of socio-economic and climatic factors in national food security assessments. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2312_04428 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2023 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Probabilistic Scenario-Based Assessment of National Food Security Risks with Application to Egypt and Ethiopia Koundouri, Phoebe Papayiannis, Georgios I. Vassilopoulos, Achilleas Yannacopoulos, Athanasios N. Econometrics Applications 62P12, 62P20 This study presents a novel approach to assessing food security risks at the national level, employing a probabilistic scenario-based framework that integrates both Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP). This innovative method allows each scenario, encompassing socio-economic and climate factors, to be treated as a model capable of generating diverse trajectories. This approach offers a more dynamic understanding of food security risks under varying future conditions. The paper details the methodologies employed, showcasing their applicability through a focused analysis of food security challenges in Egypt and Ethiopia, and underscores the importance of considering a spectrum of socio-economic and climatic factors in national food security assessments. |
| title | Probabilistic Scenario-Based Assessment of National Food Security Risks with Application to Egypt and Ethiopia |
| topic | Econometrics Applications 62P12, 62P20 |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2312.04428 |