GCov-Based Portmanteau Test
Fuente:
arXiv
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| Autores principales: | , |
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| Formato: | Preprint |
| Publicado: |
2023
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| _version_ | 1866918182719062016 |
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| author | Jasiak, Joann Neyazi, Aryan Manafi |
| author_facet | Jasiak, Joann Neyazi, Aryan Manafi |
| contents | We study nonlinear serial dependence tests for non-Gaussian time series and residuals of dynamic models based on portmanteau statistics involving nonlinear autocovariances. A new test with an asymptotic $χ^2$ distribution is introduced for testing nonlinear serial dependence (NLSD) in time series. This test is inspired by the Generalized Covariance (GCov) residual-based specification test, recently proposed as a diagnostic tool for semi-parametric dynamic models with i.i.d. non-Gaussian errors. It has a $χ^2$ distribution when the model is correctly specified and estimated by the GCov estimator. We derive new asymptotic results under local alternatives for testing hypotheses on the parameters of a semi-parametric model. We extend it by introducing a GCov bootstrap test for residual diagnostics,\color{black} which is also available for models estimated by a different method, such as the maximum likelihood estimator under a parametric assumption on the error distribution. \color{black} A simulation study shows that the tests perform well in applications to mixed causal-noncausal autoregressive models. The GCov specification test is used to assess the fit of a mixed causal-noncausal model of aluminum prices with locally explosive patterns, i.e. bubbles and spikes between 2005 and 2024. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2312_05373 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2023 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | GCov-Based Portmanteau Test Jasiak, Joann Neyazi, Aryan Manafi Econometrics We study nonlinear serial dependence tests for non-Gaussian time series and residuals of dynamic models based on portmanteau statistics involving nonlinear autocovariances. A new test with an asymptotic $χ^2$ distribution is introduced for testing nonlinear serial dependence (NLSD) in time series. This test is inspired by the Generalized Covariance (GCov) residual-based specification test, recently proposed as a diagnostic tool for semi-parametric dynamic models with i.i.d. non-Gaussian errors. It has a $χ^2$ distribution when the model is correctly specified and estimated by the GCov estimator. We derive new asymptotic results under local alternatives for testing hypotheses on the parameters of a semi-parametric model. We extend it by introducing a GCov bootstrap test for residual diagnostics,\color{black} which is also available for models estimated by a different method, such as the maximum likelihood estimator under a parametric assumption on the error distribution. \color{black} A simulation study shows that the tests perform well in applications to mixed causal-noncausal autoregressive models. The GCov specification test is used to assess the fit of a mixed causal-noncausal model of aluminum prices with locally explosive patterns, i.e. bubbles and spikes between 2005 and 2024. |
| title | GCov-Based Portmanteau Test |
| topic | Econometrics |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2312.05373 |