Bangladesh's Amplified Coastal Storm Tide Hazard from Tropical Cyclones and Rising Sea Levels in a Warming Climate
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| Format: | Preprint |
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2023
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| _version_ | 1866929656214585344 |
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| author | Qiu, Jiangchao Ravela, Sai Emanuel, Kerry |
| author_facet | Qiu, Jiangchao Ravela, Sai Emanuel, Kerry |
| contents | The risk of extreme storm tides to Bangladesh's low-lying and densely populated coastal regions, already vulnerable to tropical cyclones, remains poorly quantified under a warming climate. Here, using a statistical-physical downscaling approach, our multimodel large-ensemble projections under the IPCC6 SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios show that Bangladesh's 100-year storm tide will likely intensify from 3.5 m to between 4.9 m and 5.4 m by the end of the 21st century. The Meghna-North Chattogram region is the most vulnerable, and the storm tide season will broaden significantly, amplifying the strongest during the late monsoon and late post-monsoon seasons. We project substantial increases in seasonal storm tide frequencies, with a four-fold increase in back-to-back extremes in the post-monsoon season. Across the SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios assessed using multiple climate models, the frequency of storm tide from destructive cyclones like Bhola and Gorky will significantly increase by 7-18 times and 6-23 times, respectively. Our study indicates a need to re-examine the ongoing coastal improvement and heighten the urgency to enhance coastal resilience in Bangladesh. |
| format | Preprint |
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arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2312_06051 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2023 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Bangladesh's Amplified Coastal Storm Tide Hazard from Tropical Cyclones and Rising Sea Levels in a Warming Climate Qiu, Jiangchao Ravela, Sai Emanuel, Kerry Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics Applications 86A08 The risk of extreme storm tides to Bangladesh's low-lying and densely populated coastal regions, already vulnerable to tropical cyclones, remains poorly quantified under a warming climate. Here, using a statistical-physical downscaling approach, our multimodel large-ensemble projections under the IPCC6 SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios show that Bangladesh's 100-year storm tide will likely intensify from 3.5 m to between 4.9 m and 5.4 m by the end of the 21st century. The Meghna-North Chattogram region is the most vulnerable, and the storm tide season will broaden significantly, amplifying the strongest during the late monsoon and late post-monsoon seasons. We project substantial increases in seasonal storm tide frequencies, with a four-fold increase in back-to-back extremes in the post-monsoon season. Across the SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios assessed using multiple climate models, the frequency of storm tide from destructive cyclones like Bhola and Gorky will significantly increase by 7-18 times and 6-23 times, respectively. Our study indicates a need to re-examine the ongoing coastal improvement and heighten the urgency to enhance coastal resilience in Bangladesh. |
| title | Bangladesh's Amplified Coastal Storm Tide Hazard from Tropical Cyclones and Rising Sea Levels in a Warming Climate |
| topic | Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics Applications 86A08 |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2312.06051 |