Approximations of semi-Markov processes and insurance policy valuation

Fuente: arXiv
Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Bladt, Martin, Minca, Andreea, Peralta, Oscar
Format: Preprint
Published: 2023
Subjects:
Online Access:
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
_version_ 1866915433935798272
author Bladt, Martin
Minca, Andreea
Peralta, Oscar
author_facet Bladt, Martin
Minca, Andreea
Peralta, Oscar
contents Inspired by a duration-dependent life insurance model, we consider continuous-time semi-Markov jump processes, initially assumed to have a finite state-space. We develop approximations using jump processes that are time-homogeneous Markov, conditioned on a high-intensity Poissonian grid (grid-conditional). Our results are based on a recent adaptation of the uniformization principle, which yields a strongly pathwise convergent sequence of jump processes. In contrast to traditional methods that use classical approximations to integro-differential equation solutions to compute value functions, our approximations result in easily implementable expressions, making them valuable in situations where evaluating pathwise distributional functionals for the original semi-Markov process is challenging. Our homogeneous approximation, initially grid-conditional, evolves into an unconditional version that remains effective under reasonable regularity assumptions. We then relax the finite state-space assumption and show how our results can be extended to a general measurable state-space. We illustrate the practicality of our approach with a disability insurance model, using realistic underlying semi-Markov process parameters.
format Preprint
id arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2312_06784
institution arXiv
publishDate 2023
record_format arxiv
spellingShingle Approximations of semi-Markov processes and insurance policy valuation
Bladt, Martin
Minca, Andreea
Peralta, Oscar
Probability
Inspired by a duration-dependent life insurance model, we consider continuous-time semi-Markov jump processes, initially assumed to have a finite state-space. We develop approximations using jump processes that are time-homogeneous Markov, conditioned on a high-intensity Poissonian grid (grid-conditional). Our results are based on a recent adaptation of the uniformization principle, which yields a strongly pathwise convergent sequence of jump processes. In contrast to traditional methods that use classical approximations to integro-differential equation solutions to compute value functions, our approximations result in easily implementable expressions, making them valuable in situations where evaluating pathwise distributional functionals for the original semi-Markov process is challenging. Our homogeneous approximation, initially grid-conditional, evolves into an unconditional version that remains effective under reasonable regularity assumptions. We then relax the finite state-space assumption and show how our results can be extended to a general measurable state-space. We illustrate the practicality of our approach with a disability insurance model, using realistic underlying semi-Markov process parameters.
title Approximations of semi-Markov processes and insurance policy valuation
topic Probability
url https://arxiv.org/abs/2312.06784