Forecasting skill of a crowd-prediction platform: A comparison of exchange rate forecasts
Fuente:
arXiv
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| Natura: | Preprint |
| Pubblicazione: |
2023
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| _version_ | 1866918031046737920 |
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| author | Lehmann, Niklas Valentin |
| author_facet | Lehmann, Niklas Valentin |
| contents | Open online crowd-prediction platforms are increasingly used to forecast trends and complex events. Despite the large body of research on crowd-prediction and forecasting tournaments, online crowd-prediction platforms have never been directly compared to other forecasting methods. In this analysis, exchange rate crowd-predictions made on Metaculus are compared to predictions made by the random-walk, a statistical model considered extremely hard-to-beat. The random-walk provides less erroneous forecasts, but the crowd-prediction does very well. By using the random-walk as a benchmark, this analysis provides a rare glimpse into the forecasting skill displayed on open online crowd-prediction platforms. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2312_09081 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2023 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Forecasting skill of a crowd-prediction platform: A comparison of exchange rate forecasts Lehmann, Niklas Valentin General Economics Economics Open online crowd-prediction platforms are increasingly used to forecast trends and complex events. Despite the large body of research on crowd-prediction and forecasting tournaments, online crowd-prediction platforms have never been directly compared to other forecasting methods. In this analysis, exchange rate crowd-predictions made on Metaculus are compared to predictions made by the random-walk, a statistical model considered extremely hard-to-beat. The random-walk provides less erroneous forecasts, but the crowd-prediction does very well. By using the random-walk as a benchmark, this analysis provides a rare glimpse into the forecasting skill displayed on open online crowd-prediction platforms. |
| title | Forecasting skill of a crowd-prediction platform: A comparison of exchange rate forecasts |
| topic | General Economics Economics |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2312.09081 |