Improving MMA judging with consensus scoring: A Statistical analysis of MMA bouts from 2003 to 2023

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Autore principale:	Berthet, Vincent
Natura:	Preprint
Pubblicazione:	2024
Soggetti:	Physics and Society
Accesso online:	Acceder al recurso
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author	Berthet, Vincent
author_facet	Berthet, Vincent
contents	Boxing and MMA have a longstanding issue with judging, as evidenced by frequent controversial decisions. Like boxing, MMA bouts are scored following the 10-Point Must System, by which judges score each round individually. In the present study, we compare the performance of two methods of round scores aggregation: the standard method (aggregation over rounds and then over judges) and an alternative method known as consensus scoring (aggregation over judges and then over rounds). For that purpose, we conducted a statistical analysis of 4,129 MMA bouts that went to decision between 2003 and 2023. Our findings indicate that standard and consensus scoring yield the same result in 97.53% of the bouts. Noteworthy, this percentage may be underestimated, as judges may not always score each round individually; instead, they may balance their scores across rounds. Regarding the bouts in which the two methods disagree, the outcome of consensus scoring aligns more with the opinion of the fans (48.96%) than that of standard scoring (43.75%). This results from the fact that consensus scoring can counteract the impact of an incorrect score (especially a 10-8 score) given by a judge in a specific round. From a cost-benefit perspective, we argue that state commissions should consider consensus scoring in MMA as an alternative to standard scoring as it can avoid controversial decisions while it does not imply a major change in the judging system.
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publishDate	2024
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spellingShingle	Improving MMA judging with consensus scoring: A Statistical analysis of MMA bouts from 2003 to 2023 Berthet, Vincent Physics and Society Boxing and MMA have a longstanding issue with judging, as evidenced by frequent controversial decisions. Like boxing, MMA bouts are scored following the 10-Point Must System, by which judges score each round individually. In the present study, we compare the performance of two methods of round scores aggregation: the standard method (aggregation over rounds and then over judges) and an alternative method known as consensus scoring (aggregation over judges and then over rounds). For that purpose, we conducted a statistical analysis of 4,129 MMA bouts that went to decision between 2003 and 2023. Our findings indicate that standard and consensus scoring yield the same result in 97.53% of the bouts. Noteworthy, this percentage may be underestimated, as judges may not always score each round individually; instead, they may balance their scores across rounds. Regarding the bouts in which the two methods disagree, the outcome of consensus scoring aligns more with the opinion of the fans (48.96%) than that of standard scoring (43.75%). This results from the fact that consensus scoring can counteract the impact of an incorrect score (especially a 10-8 score) given by a judge in a specific round. From a cost-benefit perspective, we argue that state commissions should consider consensus scoring in MMA as an alternative to standard scoring as it can avoid controversial decisions while it does not imply a major change in the judging system.
title	Improving MMA judging with consensus scoring: A Statistical analysis of MMA bouts from 2003 to 2023
topic	Physics and Society
url	https://arxiv.org/abs/2401.03280

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