Applying different methods to model dry and wet spells at daily scale in a large range of rainfall regimes across Europe
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2024
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| author | Baiamonte, Giorgio Agnese, Carmelo Cammalleri, Carmelo Di Nardo, Elvira Ferraris, Stefano Martini, Tommaso |
| author_facet | Baiamonte, Giorgio Agnese, Carmelo Cammalleri, Carmelo Di Nardo, Elvira Ferraris, Stefano Martini, Tommaso |
| contents | The modelling of the occurrence of rainfall dry and wet spells (ds and ws, respectively) can be jointly conveyed using the inter-arrival times (it). While the modelling of it has the advantage of requiring a single fitting for the description of all rainfall time characteristics (including wet and dry chains, an extension of the concept of spells), the assumption on the independence and identical distribution of the renewal times it implicitly imposes a memoryless property on the derived ws, which may not be true in some cases. In this study, two different methods for the modelling of rainfall time characteristics at station scale have been applied: i) a direct method (DM) that fits the discrete Lerch distribution to it records, and then derives ws and ds (as well as the corresponding chains) from the it distribution; and ii) an indirect method (IM) that fits the Lerch distribution to the ws and ds records separately, relaxing the assumptions of the renewal process. The results of this application over six stations in Europe, characterized by a wide range of rainfall regimes, highlight how the geometric distribution does not always reasonably reproduce the ws frequencies, even when it are modelled by the Lerch distribution well. Improved performances are obtained with the IM, thanks to the relaxation of the assumption on the independence and identical distribution of the renewal times. A further improvement on the fittings is obtained when the datasets are separated into two periods, suggesting that the inferences may benefit for accounting for the local seasonality. |
| format | Preprint |
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arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2402_02016 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2024 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Applying different methods to model dry and wet spells at daily scale in a large range of rainfall regimes across Europe Baiamonte, Giorgio Agnese, Carmelo Cammalleri, Carmelo Di Nardo, Elvira Ferraris, Stefano Martini, Tommaso Methodology Applications The modelling of the occurrence of rainfall dry and wet spells (ds and ws, respectively) can be jointly conveyed using the inter-arrival times (it). While the modelling of it has the advantage of requiring a single fitting for the description of all rainfall time characteristics (including wet and dry chains, an extension of the concept of spells), the assumption on the independence and identical distribution of the renewal times it implicitly imposes a memoryless property on the derived ws, which may not be true in some cases. In this study, two different methods for the modelling of rainfall time characteristics at station scale have been applied: i) a direct method (DM) that fits the discrete Lerch distribution to it records, and then derives ws and ds (as well as the corresponding chains) from the it distribution; and ii) an indirect method (IM) that fits the Lerch distribution to the ws and ds records separately, relaxing the assumptions of the renewal process. The results of this application over six stations in Europe, characterized by a wide range of rainfall regimes, highlight how the geometric distribution does not always reasonably reproduce the ws frequencies, even when it are modelled by the Lerch distribution well. Improved performances are obtained with the IM, thanks to the relaxation of the assumption on the independence and identical distribution of the renewal times. A further improvement on the fittings is obtained when the datasets are separated into two periods, suggesting that the inferences may benefit for accounting for the local seasonality. |
| title | Applying different methods to model dry and wet spells at daily scale in a large range of rainfall regimes across Europe |
| topic | Methodology Applications |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2402.02016 |