Large and Deep Factor Models
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arXiv
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| Auteurs principaux: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Preprint |
| Publié: |
2024
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| _version_ | 1866917274110132224 |
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| author | Kelly, Bryan Kuznetsov, Boris Malamud, Semyon Xu, Teng Andrea Zhang, Yuan |
| author_facet | Kelly, Bryan Kuznetsov, Boris Malamud, Semyon Xu, Teng Andrea Zhang, Yuan |
| contents | We show that a deep neural network (DNN) trained to construct a stochastic discount factor (SDF) admits a sharp additive decomposition that separates nonlinear characteristic discovery from the pricing rule that aggregates them. The economically relevant component of this decomposition is governed by a new object, the Portfolio Tangent Kernel (PTK), which captures the features learned by the network and induces an explicit linear factor pricing representation for the SDF. In population, the PTK-implied SDF converges to a ridge-regularized version of the true SDF, with the effective strength of regularization determined by the spectral complexity of the PTK. Using U.S. equity data, we show that the PTK representation delivers large and statistically significant performance gains, while its spectral complexity has risen sharply-by roughly a factor of six since the early 2000s-imposing increasingly tight limits on finite-sample pricing performance. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2402_06635 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2024 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Large and Deep Factor Models Kelly, Bryan Kuznetsov, Boris Malamud, Semyon Xu, Teng Andrea Zhang, Yuan Statistical Finance Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science Machine Learning We show that a deep neural network (DNN) trained to construct a stochastic discount factor (SDF) admits a sharp additive decomposition that separates nonlinear characteristic discovery from the pricing rule that aggregates them. The economically relevant component of this decomposition is governed by a new object, the Portfolio Tangent Kernel (PTK), which captures the features learned by the network and induces an explicit linear factor pricing representation for the SDF. In population, the PTK-implied SDF converges to a ridge-regularized version of the true SDF, with the effective strength of regularization determined by the spectral complexity of the PTK. Using U.S. equity data, we show that the PTK representation delivers large and statistically significant performance gains, while its spectral complexity has risen sharply-by roughly a factor of six since the early 2000s-imposing increasingly tight limits on finite-sample pricing performance. |
| title | Large and Deep Factor Models |
| topic | Statistical Finance Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science Machine Learning |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2402.06635 |