Opinion models, data, and politics
Fuente:
arXiv
Gespeichert in:
| Hauptverfasser: | , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Preprint |
| Veröffentlicht: |
2024
|
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | |
| Tags: |
Tag hinzufügen
Keine Tags, Fügen Sie den ersten Tag hinzu!
|
| _version_ | 1866917587046105088 |
|---|---|
| author | Gsänger, Matthias Hösel, Volker Mohamad-Klotzbach, Christoph Müller, Johannes |
| author_facet | Gsänger, Matthias Hösel, Volker Mohamad-Klotzbach, Christoph Müller, Johannes |
| contents | We investigate the connection between Potts (Curie-Weiss) models and stochastic opinion models in the view of the Boltzmann distribution and stochastic Glauber dynamics. We particularly find that the q-voter model can be considered as a natural extension of the Zealot model which is adapted by Lagrangian parameters. We also discuss weak and strong effects continuum limits for the models. We then fit four models (Curie-Weiss, strong and weak effects limit for the q-voter model, and the reinforcement model) to election data from United States, United Kingdom, France and Germany. We find that particularly the weak effects models are able to fit the data (Kolmogorov-Smirnov test), where the weak effects reinforcement model performs best (AIC). The resulting estimates are interpreted in the view of political sciences, and also the importance of this kind of model-based approaches to election data for the political sciences is discussed. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2402_06910 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2024 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Opinion models, data, and politics Gsänger, Matthias Hösel, Volker Mohamad-Klotzbach, Christoph Müller, Johannes Physics and Society 91D30, 60J70 We investigate the connection between Potts (Curie-Weiss) models and stochastic opinion models in the view of the Boltzmann distribution and stochastic Glauber dynamics. We particularly find that the q-voter model can be considered as a natural extension of the Zealot model which is adapted by Lagrangian parameters. We also discuss weak and strong effects continuum limits for the models. We then fit four models (Curie-Weiss, strong and weak effects limit for the q-voter model, and the reinforcement model) to election data from United States, United Kingdom, France and Germany. We find that particularly the weak effects models are able to fit the data (Kolmogorov-Smirnov test), where the weak effects reinforcement model performs best (AIC). The resulting estimates are interpreted in the view of political sciences, and also the importance of this kind of model-based approaches to election data for the political sciences is discussed. |
| title | Opinion models, data, and politics |
| topic | Physics and Society 91D30, 60J70 |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2402.06910 |