Self-Arresting and Runaway Earthquakes:Nucleation, Propagation, Gutenberg-Richter law and Dragon-King Events
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| Format: | Preprint |
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2024
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| _version_ | 1866908799248367616 |
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| author | Sornette, Didier Wei, Xueting Chen, Xiaofei |
| author_facet | Sornette, Didier Wei, Xueting Chen, Xiaofei |
| contents | We develop a dissipation-based framework for earthquake rupture on homogeneous faults that explicitly separates the onset of unstable slip from the conditions required for self-sustained rupture propagation. This distinction explains the coexistence of self-arresting earthquakes and run-away ruptures (subshear and supershear events) observed in numerical simulations and empirical studies. We identify two distinct characteristic fault sizes: a nucleation radius controlling the instability of slip, and in general a larger propagation radius controlling whether an unstable rupture can be energetically sustained. Ruptures initiated above the nucleation scale but below the propagation scale spontaneously arrest. We further derive the Gutenberg-Richter law for self-arresting earthquakes by linking rupture physics to the fractal geometry of faulting. Finally, we interpret run-away ruptures as extreme events generated by an amplifying mechanism, consistent with the dragon-king concept. These results provide a unified physical basis for earthquake initiation, arrest, and seismicity statistics. |
| format | Preprint |
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arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2402_14626 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2024 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Self-Arresting and Runaway Earthquakes:Nucleation, Propagation, Gutenberg-Richter law and Dragon-King Events Sornette, Didier Wei, Xueting Chen, Xiaofei Geophysics We develop a dissipation-based framework for earthquake rupture on homogeneous faults that explicitly separates the onset of unstable slip from the conditions required for self-sustained rupture propagation. This distinction explains the coexistence of self-arresting earthquakes and run-away ruptures (subshear and supershear events) observed in numerical simulations and empirical studies. We identify two distinct characteristic fault sizes: a nucleation radius controlling the instability of slip, and in general a larger propagation radius controlling whether an unstable rupture can be energetically sustained. Ruptures initiated above the nucleation scale but below the propagation scale spontaneously arrest. We further derive the Gutenberg-Richter law for self-arresting earthquakes by linking rupture physics to the fractal geometry of faulting. Finally, we interpret run-away ruptures as extreme events generated by an amplifying mechanism, consistent with the dragon-king concept. These results provide a unified physical basis for earthquake initiation, arrest, and seismicity statistics. |
| title | Self-Arresting and Runaway Earthquakes:Nucleation, Propagation, Gutenberg-Richter law and Dragon-King Events |
| topic | Geophysics |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2402.14626 |