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| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Preprint |
| Published: |
2024
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://arxiv.org/abs/2402.16345 |
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| _version_ | 1866917597776183296 |
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| author | Badulina, Nina Shatilovich, Dmitry Zhitlukhin, Mikhail |
| author_facet | Badulina, Nina Shatilovich, Dmitry Zhitlukhin, Mikhail |
| contents | We propose a dynamic model of a prediction market in which agents predict the values of a sequence of random vectors. The main result shows that if there are agents who make correct (or asymptotically correct) next-period forecasts, then the aggregated market forecasts converge to the next-period conditional expectations of the random vectors. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2402_16345 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2024 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | On convergence of forecasts in prediction markets Badulina, Nina Shatilovich, Dmitry Zhitlukhin, Mikhail Probability Mathematical Finance We propose a dynamic model of a prediction market in which agents predict the values of a sequence of random vectors. The main result shows that if there are agents who make correct (or asymptotically correct) next-period forecasts, then the aggregated market forecasts converge to the next-period conditional expectations of the random vectors. |
| title | On convergence of forecasts in prediction markets |
| topic | Probability Mathematical Finance |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2402.16345 |