Sparse Variational Contaminated Noise Gaussian Process Regression with Applications in Geomagnetic Perturbations Forecasting

Fuente: arXiv
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Main Authors: Iong, Daniel, McAnear, Matthew, Qu, Yuezhou, Zou, Shasha, Toth, Gabor, Chen, Yang
Format: Preprint
Published: 2024
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author Iong, Daniel
McAnear, Matthew
Qu, Yuezhou
Zou, Shasha
Toth, Gabor
Chen, Yang
author_facet Iong, Daniel
McAnear, Matthew
Qu, Yuezhou
Zou, Shasha
Toth, Gabor
Chen, Yang
contents Gaussian Processes (GP) have become popular machine-learning methods for kernel-based learning on datasets with complicated covariance structures. In this paper, we present a novel extension to the GP framework using a contaminated normal likelihood function to better account for heteroscedastic variance and outlier noise. We propose a scalable inference algorithm based on the Sparse Variational Gaussian Process (SVGP) method for fitting sparse Gaussian process regression models with contaminated normal noise on large datasets. We examine an application to geomagnetic ground perturbations, where the state-of-the-art prediction model is based on neural networks. We show that our approach yields shorter prediction intervals for similar coverage and accuracy when compared to an artificial dense neural network baseline.
format Preprint
id arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2402_17570
institution arXiv
publishDate 2024
record_format arxiv
spellingShingle Sparse Variational Contaminated Noise Gaussian Process Regression with Applications in Geomagnetic Perturbations Forecasting
Iong, Daniel
McAnear, Matthew
Qu, Yuezhou
Zou, Shasha
Toth, Gabor
Chen, Yang
Machine Learning
Applications
Methodology
Gaussian Processes (GP) have become popular machine-learning methods for kernel-based learning on datasets with complicated covariance structures. In this paper, we present a novel extension to the GP framework using a contaminated normal likelihood function to better account for heteroscedastic variance and outlier noise. We propose a scalable inference algorithm based on the Sparse Variational Gaussian Process (SVGP) method for fitting sparse Gaussian process regression models with contaminated normal noise on large datasets. We examine an application to geomagnetic ground perturbations, where the state-of-the-art prediction model is based on neural networks. We show that our approach yields shorter prediction intervals for similar coverage and accuracy when compared to an artificial dense neural network baseline.
title Sparse Variational Contaminated Noise Gaussian Process Regression with Applications in Geomagnetic Perturbations Forecasting
topic Machine Learning
Applications
Methodology
url https://arxiv.org/abs/2402.17570