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| Format: | Preprint |
| Veröffentlicht: |
2024
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| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | https://arxiv.org/abs/2402.17920 |
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| _version_ | 1866917599904792576 |
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| author | Ashouri, Mahsa Henderson, Nicholas C. |
| author_facet | Ashouri, Mahsa Henderson, Nicholas C. |
| contents | Prediction methods for time-to-event outcomes often utilize survival models that rely on strong assumptions about noninformative censoring or on how individual-level covariates and survival functions are related. When the main interest is in predicting individual-level restricted mean survival times (RMST), reliance on such assumptions can lead to poor predictive performance if these assumptions are not satisfied. We propose a generalized Bayes framework that avoids full probability modeling of all survival outcomes by using an RMST-targeted loss function that depends on a collection of inverse probability of censoring weights (IPCW). In our generalized Bayes formulation, we utilize a flexible additive tree regression model for the RMST function, and the posterior distribution of interest is obtained through model-averaging IPCW-conditional loss function-based pseudo-Bayesian posteriors. Because informative censoring can be captured by the IPCW-dependent loss function, our approach only requires one to specify a model for the censoring distribution, thereby obviating the need for complex joint modeling to handle informative censoring. We evaluate the performance of our method through a series of simulations that compare it with several well-known survival machine learning methods, and we illustrate the application of our method using a multi-site cohort of breast cancer patients with clinical and genomic covariates. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2402_17920 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2024 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Generalized Bayesian Additive Regression Trees for Restricted Mean Survival Time Inference Ashouri, Mahsa Henderson, Nicholas C. Methodology Prediction methods for time-to-event outcomes often utilize survival models that rely on strong assumptions about noninformative censoring or on how individual-level covariates and survival functions are related. When the main interest is in predicting individual-level restricted mean survival times (RMST), reliance on such assumptions can lead to poor predictive performance if these assumptions are not satisfied. We propose a generalized Bayes framework that avoids full probability modeling of all survival outcomes by using an RMST-targeted loss function that depends on a collection of inverse probability of censoring weights (IPCW). In our generalized Bayes formulation, we utilize a flexible additive tree regression model for the RMST function, and the posterior distribution of interest is obtained through model-averaging IPCW-conditional loss function-based pseudo-Bayesian posteriors. Because informative censoring can be captured by the IPCW-dependent loss function, our approach only requires one to specify a model for the censoring distribution, thereby obviating the need for complex joint modeling to handle informative censoring. We evaluate the performance of our method through a series of simulations that compare it with several well-known survival machine learning methods, and we illustrate the application of our method using a multi-site cohort of breast cancer patients with clinical and genomic covariates. |
| title | Generalized Bayesian Additive Regression Trees for Restricted Mean Survival Time Inference |
| topic | Methodology |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2402.17920 |