Double trouble: Predicting new variant counts across two heterogeneous populations

Fuente: arXiv
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Autores principales: Shen, Yunyi, Masoero, Lorenzo, Schraiber, Joshua G., Broderick, Tamara
Formato: Preprint
Publicado: 2024
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author Shen, Yunyi
Masoero, Lorenzo
Schraiber, Joshua G.
Broderick, Tamara
author_facet Shen, Yunyi
Masoero, Lorenzo
Schraiber, Joshua G.
Broderick, Tamara
contents Collecting genomics data across multiple heterogeneous populations (e.g., across different cancer types) has the potential to improve our understanding of disease. Despite sequencing advances, though, resources often remain a constraint when gathering data. So it would be useful for experimental design if experimenters with access to a pilot study could predict the number of new variants they might expect to find in a follow-up study: both the number of new variants shared between the populations and the total across the populations. While many authors have developed prediction methods for the single-population case, we show that these predictions can fare poorly across multiple populations that are heterogeneous. We prove that, surprisingly, a natural extension of a state-of-the-art single-population predictor to multiple populations fails for fundamental reasons. We provide the first predictor for the number of new shared variants and new total variants that can handle heterogeneity in multiple populations. We show that our proposed method works well empirically using real cancer and population genetics data.
format Preprint
id arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2403_02154
institution arXiv
publishDate 2024
record_format arxiv
spellingShingle Double trouble: Predicting new variant counts across two heterogeneous populations
Shen, Yunyi
Masoero, Lorenzo
Schraiber, Joshua G.
Broderick, Tamara
Methodology
Genomics
Quantitative Methods
Collecting genomics data across multiple heterogeneous populations (e.g., across different cancer types) has the potential to improve our understanding of disease. Despite sequencing advances, though, resources often remain a constraint when gathering data. So it would be useful for experimental design if experimenters with access to a pilot study could predict the number of new variants they might expect to find in a follow-up study: both the number of new variants shared between the populations and the total across the populations. While many authors have developed prediction methods for the single-population case, we show that these predictions can fare poorly across multiple populations that are heterogeneous. We prove that, surprisingly, a natural extension of a state-of-the-art single-population predictor to multiple populations fails for fundamental reasons. We provide the first predictor for the number of new shared variants and new total variants that can handle heterogeneity in multiple populations. We show that our proposed method works well empirically using real cancer and population genetics data.
title Double trouble: Predicting new variant counts across two heterogeneous populations
topic Methodology
Genomics
Quantitative Methods
url https://arxiv.org/abs/2403.02154