Is a Recent Surge in Global Warming Detectable?
Fuente:
arXiv
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| Autores principales: | , , , , |
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| Formato: | Preprint |
| Publicado: |
2024
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| Materias: | |
| Acceso en línea: | |
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| _version_ | 1866916148606402560 |
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| author | Beaulieu, Claudie Gallagher, Colin Killick, Rebecca Lund, Robert Shi, Xueheng |
| author_facet | Beaulieu, Claudie Gallagher, Colin Killick, Rebecca Lund, Robert Shi, Xueheng |
| contents | The global mean surface temperature is widely studied to monitor climate change. A current debate centers around whether there has been a recent (post-1970s) surge/acceleration in the warming rate. This paper addresses whether an acceleration in the warming rate is detectable from a statistical perspective. We use changepoint models, which are statistical techniques specifically designed for identifying structural changes in time series. Four global mean surface temperature records over 1850-2023 are scrutinized within. Our results show limited evidence for a warming surge; in most surface temperature time series, no change in the warming rate beyond the 1970s is detected. As such, we estimate minimum changes in the warming trend for a surge to be detectable in the near future. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2403_03388 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2024 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Is a Recent Surge in Global Warming Detectable? Beaulieu, Claudie Gallagher, Colin Killick, Rebecca Lund, Robert Shi, Xueheng Applications The global mean surface temperature is widely studied to monitor climate change. A current debate centers around whether there has been a recent (post-1970s) surge/acceleration in the warming rate. This paper addresses whether an acceleration in the warming rate is detectable from a statistical perspective. We use changepoint models, which are statistical techniques specifically designed for identifying structural changes in time series. Four global mean surface temperature records over 1850-2023 are scrutinized within. Our results show limited evidence for a warming surge; in most surface temperature time series, no change in the warming rate beyond the 1970s is detected. As such, we estimate minimum changes in the warming trend for a surge to be detectable in the near future. |
| title | Is a Recent Surge in Global Warming Detectable? |
| topic | Applications |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2403.03388 |