Salvato in:
| Autori principali: | , , |
|---|---|
| Natura: | Preprint |
| Pubblicazione: |
2024
|
| Soggetti: | |
| Accesso online: | https://arxiv.org/abs/2403.04345 |
| Tags: |
Aggiungi Tag
Nessun Tag, puoi essere il primo ad aggiungerne!!
|
Sommario:
- Simple Exponential Smoothing is a classical technique used for smoothing time series data by assigning exponentially decreasing weights to past observations through a recursive equation; it is sometimes presented as a rule of thumb procedure. We introduce a novel theoretical perspective where the recursive equation that defines simple exponential smoothing occurs naturally as a stochastic gradient ascent scheme to optimize a sequence of Gaussian log-likelihood functions. Under this lens of analysis, our main theorem shows that -- in a general setting -- simple exponential smoothing converges to a neighborhood of the trend of a trend-stationary stochastic process. This offers a novel theoretical assurance that the exponential smoothing procedure yields reliable estimators of the underlying trend shedding light on long-standing observations in the literature regarding the robustness of simple exponential smoothing.