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| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Preprint |
| Published: |
2024
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://arxiv.org/abs/2403.08966 |
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Table of Contents:
- Stochastic programming is often challenged by epistemic uncertainty, where critical probability distributions are poorly characterized or unknown due to a lack of data. To address this, we pioneer a novel framework for stochastic programming that minimizes an upper confidence bound (UCB) on the expected random cost, acting as a robustness-seeking strategy. Our central contribution is the Average Percentile Upper Bound (APUB), a new statistical construct that serves as both a statistically rigorous upper bound for population means and an approximate risk metric for sample means. We rigorously prove the asymptotic correctness and consistency of APUB, establishing a reliable foundation for data-driven decision-making. We also develop practical solution methods, including a bootstrap sampling approximation method and an L-shaped method, to solve APUB optimization problems, with a specific focus on two-stage linear stochastic optimization with random recourse. Empirical demonstrations on a two-stage product mix problem reveal the significant benefits of our APUB optimization framework, which fortifies the process against epistemic uncertainty while reinforcing key decision-making attributes like reliability and consistency. The implementation and source code are available at https://github.com/8Wings/APUB-Optimization.