Large-scale flood modeling and forecasting with FloodCast
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arXiv
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| Auteurs principaux: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Preprint |
| Publié: |
2024
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| _version_ | 1866911801598279680 |
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| author | Xu, Qingsong Shi, Yilei Bamber, Jonathan Ouyang, Chaojun Zhu, Xiao Xiang |
| author_facet | Xu, Qingsong Shi, Yilei Bamber, Jonathan Ouyang, Chaojun Zhu, Xiao Xiang |
| contents | Large-scale hydrodynamic models generally rely on fixed-resolution spatial grids and model parameters as well as incurring a high computational cost. This limits their ability to accurately forecast flood crests and issue time-critical hazard warnings. In this work, we build a fast, stable, accurate, resolution-invariant, and geometry-adaptative flood modeling and forecasting framework that can perform at large scales, namely FloodCast. The framework comprises two main modules: multi-satellite observation and hydrodynamic modeling. In the multi-satellite observation module, a real-time unsupervised change detection method and a rainfall processing and analysis tool are proposed to harness the full potential of multi-satellite observations in large-scale flood prediction. In the hydrodynamic modeling module, a geometry-adaptive physics-informed neural solver (GeoPINS) is introduced, benefiting from the absence of a requirement for training data in physics-informed neural networks and featuring a fast, accurate, and resolution-invariant architecture with Fourier neural operators. GeoPINS demonstrates impressive performance on popular PDEs across regular and irregular domains. Building upon GeoPINS, we propose a sequence-to-sequence GeoPINS model to handle long-term temporal series and extensive spatial domains in large-scale flood modeling. Next, we establish a benchmark dataset in the 2022 Pakistan flood to assess various flood prediction methods. Finally, we validate the model in three dimensions - flood inundation range, depth, and transferability of spatiotemporal downscaling. Traditional hydrodynamics and sequence-to-sequence GeoPINS exhibit exceptional agreement during high water levels, while comparative assessments with SAR-based flood depth data show that sequence-to-sequence GeoPINS outperforms traditional hydrodynamics, with smaller prediction errors. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2403_12226 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2024 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Large-scale flood modeling and forecasting with FloodCast Xu, Qingsong Shi, Yilei Bamber, Jonathan Ouyang, Chaojun Zhu, Xiao Xiang Machine Learning Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition Fluid Dynamics Large-scale hydrodynamic models generally rely on fixed-resolution spatial grids and model parameters as well as incurring a high computational cost. This limits their ability to accurately forecast flood crests and issue time-critical hazard warnings. In this work, we build a fast, stable, accurate, resolution-invariant, and geometry-adaptative flood modeling and forecasting framework that can perform at large scales, namely FloodCast. The framework comprises two main modules: multi-satellite observation and hydrodynamic modeling. In the multi-satellite observation module, a real-time unsupervised change detection method and a rainfall processing and analysis tool are proposed to harness the full potential of multi-satellite observations in large-scale flood prediction. In the hydrodynamic modeling module, a geometry-adaptive physics-informed neural solver (GeoPINS) is introduced, benefiting from the absence of a requirement for training data in physics-informed neural networks and featuring a fast, accurate, and resolution-invariant architecture with Fourier neural operators. GeoPINS demonstrates impressive performance on popular PDEs across regular and irregular domains. Building upon GeoPINS, we propose a sequence-to-sequence GeoPINS model to handle long-term temporal series and extensive spatial domains in large-scale flood modeling. Next, we establish a benchmark dataset in the 2022 Pakistan flood to assess various flood prediction methods. Finally, we validate the model in three dimensions - flood inundation range, depth, and transferability of spatiotemporal downscaling. Traditional hydrodynamics and sequence-to-sequence GeoPINS exhibit exceptional agreement during high water levels, while comparative assessments with SAR-based flood depth data show that sequence-to-sequence GeoPINS outperforms traditional hydrodynamics, with smaller prediction errors. |
| title | Large-scale flood modeling and forecasting with FloodCast |
| topic | Machine Learning Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition Fluid Dynamics |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2403.12226 |