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| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Preprint |
| Published: |
2024
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://arxiv.org/abs/2403.13759 |
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| _version_ | 1866916520207056896 |
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| author | Yao, Adrian Benson, Sally M. Chueh, William C. |
| author_facet | Yao, Adrian Benson, Sally M. Chueh, William C. |
| contents | Sodium-ion batteries have garnered significant attention as a potentially low-cost alternative to lithium-ion batteries, which have experienced supply shortages and pricing volatility of key minerals. Here we assess their techno-economic competitiveness against incumbent lithium-ion batteries using a modeling framework incorporating componential learning curves constrained by minerals prices and engineering design floors. We compare projected sodium-ion and lithium-ion price trends across over 6,000 scenarios while varying Na-ion technology development roadmaps, supply chain scenarios, market penetration, and learning rates. Assuming substantial progress can be made along technology roadmaps via targeted R&D, we identify many sodium-ion pathways that might reach cost-competitiveness with low-cost lithium-ion variants in the early 2030s. Additionally, we show timelines are highly sensitive to movements in critical minerals supply chains -- namely that of lithium, graphite, and nickel. Modeled outcomes suggest increasing sodium-ion energy densities to decrease materials intensity to be among the most impactful ways to improve competitiveness. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2403_13759 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2024 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | How quickly can sodium-ion learn? Assessing scenarios for techno-economic competitiveness against lithium-ion batteries Yao, Adrian Benson, Sally M. Chueh, William C. Chemical Physics Materials Science Sodium-ion batteries have garnered significant attention as a potentially low-cost alternative to lithium-ion batteries, which have experienced supply shortages and pricing volatility of key minerals. Here we assess their techno-economic competitiveness against incumbent lithium-ion batteries using a modeling framework incorporating componential learning curves constrained by minerals prices and engineering design floors. We compare projected sodium-ion and lithium-ion price trends across over 6,000 scenarios while varying Na-ion technology development roadmaps, supply chain scenarios, market penetration, and learning rates. Assuming substantial progress can be made along technology roadmaps via targeted R&D, we identify many sodium-ion pathways that might reach cost-competitiveness with low-cost lithium-ion variants in the early 2030s. Additionally, we show timelines are highly sensitive to movements in critical minerals supply chains -- namely that of lithium, graphite, and nickel. Modeled outcomes suggest increasing sodium-ion energy densities to decrease materials intensity to be among the most impactful ways to improve competitiveness. |
| title | How quickly can sodium-ion learn? Assessing scenarios for techno-economic competitiveness against lithium-ion batteries |
| topic | Chemical Physics Materials Science |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2403.13759 |