Postprocessing of point predictions for probabilistic forecasting of day-ahead electricity prices: The benefits of using isotonic distributional regression
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| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Preprint |
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2024
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| _version_ | 1866912059347697664 |
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| author | Lipiecki, Arkadiusz Uniejewski, Bartosz Weron, Rafał |
| author_facet | Lipiecki, Arkadiusz Uniejewski, Bartosz Weron, Rafał |
| contents | Operational decisions relying on predictive distributions of electricity prices can result in significantly higher profits compared to those based solely on point forecasts. However, the majority of models developed in both academic and industrial settings provide only point predictions. To address this, we examine three postprocessing methods for converting point forecasts of day-ahead electricity prices into probabilistic ones: Quantile Regression Averaging, Conformal Prediction, and the recently introduced Isotonic Distributional Regression. We find that while the latter demonstrates the most varied behavior, it contributes the most to the ensemble of the three predictive distributions, as measured by Shapley values. Remarkably, the performance of the combination is superior to that of state-of-the-art Distributional Deep Neural Networks over two 4.5-year test periods from the German and Spanish power markets, spanning the COVID pandemic and the war in Ukraine. |
| format | Preprint |
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arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2404_02270 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2024 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Postprocessing of point predictions for probabilistic forecasting of day-ahead electricity prices: The benefits of using isotonic distributional regression Lipiecki, Arkadiusz Uniejewski, Bartosz Weron, Rafał Statistical Finance Applications Machine Learning Operational decisions relying on predictive distributions of electricity prices can result in significantly higher profits compared to those based solely on point forecasts. However, the majority of models developed in both academic and industrial settings provide only point predictions. To address this, we examine three postprocessing methods for converting point forecasts of day-ahead electricity prices into probabilistic ones: Quantile Regression Averaging, Conformal Prediction, and the recently introduced Isotonic Distributional Regression. We find that while the latter demonstrates the most varied behavior, it contributes the most to the ensemble of the three predictive distributions, as measured by Shapley values. Remarkably, the performance of the combination is superior to that of state-of-the-art Distributional Deep Neural Networks over two 4.5-year test periods from the German and Spanish power markets, spanning the COVID pandemic and the war in Ukraine. |
| title | Postprocessing of point predictions for probabilistic forecasting of day-ahead electricity prices: The benefits of using isotonic distributional regression |
| topic | Statistical Finance Applications Machine Learning |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2404.02270 |